I'm a firm believer that you need to give a coach a chance to build a team. But at some point there has to be a level of play where you conclude you have a PURE (previously undiscovered recruiting error) as a coach and should let him go.
Before the season, the Seahawks were talking playoffs. Obviously the absence of Walter Jones has hurt them. But this team has been terrible. They're 5-9 and just lost to a Tampa Bay team that hadn't scored a touchdown since November and might be the worst team in the league. Three of their five wins are against St Louis and Detroit. You could argue that the game against Jacksonville is the only time they've played well all year. Somehow when the team seems to underachieve every week and gets worse as the season goes on, you have to blame coaching.
I'd fire Mora. It's not all his fault, but it's hard to believe a good coach could get such a terrible effort out of this team.
Sunday, December 20
Poker update
It's not that I haven't been blogging, I actually haven't played much poker since my last post. With the holidays, evenings have been spent shopping, wrapping, packaging, lighting candles, etc. And then I had a major "non-playing" disappointment.
I played at Snoqualmie a couple of weeks ago and nearly tripled up by buy in. One of my best results of late. Basically had two big hands where I hit sets and got paid. One I erred by calling too much pre flop -- but I just didn't believe the guy -- but the other I played well calling down what was essentially a three barrel bluff on an all-club flop. Also had a simple hand where four people limp called my raise to 25 and a flopped top pair and took down the pot. I wish I could have more hands that were so easy.
We spent the weekend at Tulalip for my birthday so I could get a lot of poker in. Unfortunately it didn't work out well. Monica wanted to go shopping after dinner so I accompanied her and didn't get into a game until after 9 PM. It had been a long day and I just wasn't feeling it. Though it was a great table with really bad players. I also liked that their 3-5 game allows a $500 buy in which means more money on the table. Wound up winning a little bit almost all of it on one hand where a guy "donated" $300 with trips, no-kicker against my tips-ace kicker when his hand HAD to be no good on the turn.
Hope to get in a session this week, likely Friday if not before, before I head to Las Vegas next Monday.
I played at Snoqualmie a couple of weeks ago and nearly tripled up by buy in. One of my best results of late. Basically had two big hands where I hit sets and got paid. One I erred by calling too much pre flop -- but I just didn't believe the guy -- but the other I played well calling down what was essentially a three barrel bluff on an all-club flop. Also had a simple hand where four people limp called my raise to 25 and a flopped top pair and took down the pot. I wish I could have more hands that were so easy.
We spent the weekend at Tulalip for my birthday so I could get a lot of poker in. Unfortunately it didn't work out well. Monica wanted to go shopping after dinner so I accompanied her and didn't get into a game until after 9 PM. It had been a long day and I just wasn't feeling it. Though it was a great table with really bad players. I also liked that their 3-5 game allows a $500 buy in which means more money on the table. Wound up winning a little bit almost all of it on one hand where a guy "donated" $300 with trips, no-kicker against my tips-ace kicker when his hand HAD to be no good on the turn.
Hope to get in a session this week, likely Friday if not before, before I head to Las Vegas next Monday.
Saturday, November 28
Poker this week
I'm trying blogging from my phone. Good week of poker. Came out ahead on cash game Tuesday. Won a home game tournament Friday and cashed in the Snoqualmie tournament today.
Hmm, apparently blogging via phone doesn't create a title. Scratch that and stick to Twitter and Facebook via phone/text.
Session on Tuesday was good. I nearly doubled up early with KK vs AK with all money in pre-flop. He really thought he was racing when I four-bet!?! Played a couple more hours and gave some back. Some friends held a home game Friday night. Well, I wish it was Friday night. We were supposed to start at 9:30 but actually started at 11 (!). Without much structure and organization we kept the starting blinds for at least 90 minutes. Good news was that I chopped the prize pool with another player at 2AM though I had a small chip lead.
Today I probably played the best tournament poker I've played in a long time. I had one bad read, but basically made hands, put pressure on other people, and kept winning pots. By the time we got to the final table everyone was micro-stacking (about 2-5 BB) and the determining factors were draw for seats, getting lucky with cards, then chips, and last a touch of skill. I did poorly on the first one and wound up 8th. So I cashed twice in one day. Not sure I've ever done that.
Hmm, apparently blogging via phone doesn't create a title. Scratch that and stick to Twitter and Facebook via phone/text.
Session on Tuesday was good. I nearly doubled up early with KK vs AK with all money in pre-flop. He really thought he was racing when I four-bet!?! Played a couple more hours and gave some back. Some friends held a home game Friday night. Well, I wish it was Friday night. We were supposed to start at 9:30 but actually started at 11 (!). Without much structure and organization we kept the starting blinds for at least 90 minutes. Good news was that I chopped the prize pool with another player at 2AM though I had a small chip lead.
Today I probably played the best tournament poker I've played in a long time. I had one bad read, but basically made hands, put pressure on other people, and kept winning pots. By the time we got to the final table everyone was micro-stacking (about 2-5 BB) and the determining factors were draw for seats, getting lucky with cards, then chips, and last a touch of skill. I did poorly on the first one and wound up 8th. So I cashed twice in one day. Not sure I've ever done that.
Friday, November 27
NFL Update
After 10+ weeks, the NFL looks exactly like I called it after 3 weeks. While it's nice to be right, it's also disappointing the the league is so predictable. The eight teams I called out as terrible are a combined 18-64 (22%) but 10 of those wins are against each other. Against the "non-terrible" teams they're 8-54 (13%), which means it's almost a guaranteed win if you play one of them. The Lions have two wins not because they're improved but because other teams have fallen to their level. As noted, 2-2 was a schedule fluke for the Redskins whose 3-7 is a better representation of the team's skill level. The Panthers, who were the top of the terrible group, appear to have upgraded to "bad".
The top is a bit trickier. I gave the Ravens too much credit for wins against bad teams and they're 2-5 since. That said all five loses are to division leaders and they were close in every game. The schedule looks more favorable the rest of the way.
The Titans shaped up from their start and people are actually talking playoffs. I think they have too many teams to catch, but 8-8 would be a great accomplishment after starting 0-6. Sadly it might help Jeff Fisher keep his job.
Beyond the Colts, I still think there's a lot of smoke and mirrors with the top teams. The Saints and Vikings have played the two easiest schedules in the league this year. (Followed by the Packers and Redskins, see I told you Washington was awful.) But no one in the NFC looks that good, so I'd expect the Vikings and Saints to win in the playoffs, but bet against them and take the points.
The top is a bit trickier. I gave the Ravens too much credit for wins against bad teams and they're 2-5 since. That said all five loses are to division leaders and they were close in every game. The schedule looks more favorable the rest of the way.
The Titans shaped up from their start and people are actually talking playoffs. I think they have too many teams to catch, but 8-8 would be a great accomplishment after starting 0-6. Sadly it might help Jeff Fisher keep his job.
Beyond the Colts, I still think there's a lot of smoke and mirrors with the top teams. The Saints and Vikings have played the two easiest schedules in the league this year. (Followed by the Packers and Redskins, see I told you Washington was awful.) But no one in the NFC looks that good, so I'd expect the Vikings and Saints to win in the playoffs, but bet against them and take the points.
Sunday, November 22
The wild variance of tournaments
Tournaments are great fun because you can turn a 60 buy in into a few hundred of few thousand dollars in three or four hours. I enjoy them because the competition is generally week because people don't adjust their play to tournament constraints. Adequate cash players become bad tournament players and bad players become terrible in tournaments.
The flip side is the variance is high. While 30-50% of cash players at a table come out ahead only 10-15% of players in any tournament make the money. As well, with short stacks, you can't be patient and one mistake or one unlucky hand can do you in. Today was a day like that.
Played the Snoqualmie $60 bounty tournament. In addition to paying the top 10 players, you get $10 for every player you bust out. It's a reasonable tournament -- the players aren't very tough but it plays pretty fast. You have to take some chances. Today I had three key hands in huge pots, which coincidentally all involved the same hole cards.
Experts say that when you get under 8-12 big blinds, you should either go all-in or fold preflop. In part that's because you shouldn't raise for 1/3 of your stack and then ever fold. I generally agree but I've found that in these fast tournaments, bad players react almost the same to any raise size. If you have 10 BB whether you raise to 3 BB or 10 BB, people will look you up with TT,AQ+ and fold everything else. A small raise puts a few more hands in play. Thus a small raise has almost the same benefit is a big raise without risking your tournament life with 5-high. That said this play can sometimes get you in trouble. Because of my cards, stack size, and position, I wound up with a few hands where I raised, got called and was all-in on the flop.
First time I had king-rag, flopped a king and both players folded. Then the last hand before the break, the first key hand came up which hurt me. I read an article where the author declared the worst thing that happens in poker is when a third party makes a stupid play which affects the outcome of the hand. And I ran into this here. A MP limps, late position player with a short stack limps in, I complete the SB with JT, BB checks. The flop is 5-2-2 rainbow. This seems like a good spot to bluff -- except for BB, there's no reason anyone should have a 5, 2, or 43 -- so I make a small bet, BB calls (oops), LP calls (double oops). Even if I hit a J or T on the turn, I'm going to be careful. Turn is a T, I check BB bets 1200, LP goes all-in for 1800, I think a long time and fold -- one of them must have me beat, BB says "I have to call". BB has 95, LP has Kh7h, there are not two hearts on the board. LP simply decided he wanted to go home. He made obvious mistakes on all three streets including a naked bluff with no fold equity; it's his money he can do what he wants BUT his stupid play cost me the pot and truly donated chips to BB. I could call one player here, but not two.
Next key hand. UTG limps and it folds to me in the hijack with 7h5h. I decide to steal here, though to be honest I missed that UTG was in until I declared raise. The BB and UTG both call. Flop is Th-8h-5s, pretty good for my hand. Both players check, I shove all in for 2/3 of the pot, BB folds but UTG tanks and finally calls with JdTd. His call is easy if he knows what I have, even though I'm a slight favorite, but this is the exact peril of limp calling (see a couple posts below) with a marginal hand. Even if you hit, you have no idea if your hand is good. Turn ace, River 7. I survive.
Last hand. One mid position limper. I have AJ in SB and raise to 1200, BB is only caller. Flop is J-T-x. I bet 2000, BB raises to 4000, I got all in for about 5500, he calls (uh oh). He has JT. The turn is a ace, but he resucks with a river ten and I'm done. This worked great for him, but I think he'll get in trouble calling here with JT. If he doesn't hit the ten, he's going to lose a lot of chips here.
Poker is a game of skill, but in the short term, luck plays a pretty huge factor. And my luck wasn't so good today.
The flip side is the variance is high. While 30-50% of cash players at a table come out ahead only 10-15% of players in any tournament make the money. As well, with short stacks, you can't be patient and one mistake or one unlucky hand can do you in. Today was a day like that.
Played the Snoqualmie $60 bounty tournament. In addition to paying the top 10 players, you get $10 for every player you bust out. It's a reasonable tournament -- the players aren't very tough but it plays pretty fast. You have to take some chances. Today I had three key hands in huge pots, which coincidentally all involved the same hole cards.
Experts say that when you get under 8-12 big blinds, you should either go all-in or fold preflop. In part that's because you shouldn't raise for 1/3 of your stack and then ever fold. I generally agree but I've found that in these fast tournaments, bad players react almost the same to any raise size. If you have 10 BB whether you raise to 3 BB or 10 BB, people will look you up with TT,AQ+ and fold everything else. A small raise puts a few more hands in play. Thus a small raise has almost the same benefit is a big raise without risking your tournament life with 5-high. That said this play can sometimes get you in trouble. Because of my cards, stack size, and position, I wound up with a few hands where I raised, got called and was all-in on the flop.
First time I had king-rag, flopped a king and both players folded. Then the last hand before the break, the first key hand came up which hurt me. I read an article where the author declared the worst thing that happens in poker is when a third party makes a stupid play which affects the outcome of the hand. And I ran into this here. A MP limps, late position player with a short stack limps in, I complete the SB with JT, BB checks. The flop is 5-2-2 rainbow. This seems like a good spot to bluff -- except for BB, there's no reason anyone should have a 5, 2, or 43 -- so I make a small bet, BB calls (oops), LP calls (double oops). Even if I hit a J or T on the turn, I'm going to be careful. Turn is a T, I check BB bets 1200, LP goes all-in for 1800, I think a long time and fold -- one of them must have me beat, BB says "I have to call". BB has 95, LP has Kh7h, there are not two hearts on the board. LP simply decided he wanted to go home. He made obvious mistakes on all three streets including a naked bluff with no fold equity; it's his money he can do what he wants BUT his stupid play cost me the pot and truly donated chips to BB. I could call one player here, but not two.
Next key hand. UTG limps and it folds to me in the hijack with 7h5h. I decide to steal here, though to be honest I missed that UTG was in until I declared raise. The BB and UTG both call. Flop is Th-8h-5s, pretty good for my hand. Both players check, I shove all in for 2/3 of the pot, BB folds but UTG tanks and finally calls with JdTd. His call is easy if he knows what I have, even though I'm a slight favorite, but this is the exact peril of limp calling (see a couple posts below) with a marginal hand. Even if you hit, you have no idea if your hand is good. Turn ace, River 7. I survive.
Last hand. One mid position limper. I have AJ in SB and raise to 1200, BB is only caller. Flop is J-T-x. I bet 2000, BB raises to 4000, I got all in for about 5500, he calls (uh oh). He has JT. The turn is a ace, but he resucks with a river ten and I'm done. This worked great for him, but I think he'll get in trouble calling here with JT. If he doesn't hit the ten, he's going to lose a lot of chips here.
Poker is a game of skill, but in the short term, luck plays a pretty huge factor. And my luck wasn't so good today.
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