The bad news is that the Bears lost at home to an inferior team that's been particularly bad on the road. And the offense didn't look good at all. Honestly the offensive line is going to have to step up and give Cutler some time. If they can't run and can't pass, they can't win long term. Hopefully Garza and Briggs are back soon because they team doesn't have enough depth to play hurt. And 0-12 on 3rd down conversions should clue them in whatever they're doing isn't working.
The good news is that after 6 weeks, the number of NFC team with a better record than the Bears is 0. There are 4 other teams at 4-2. And the Bears are one of only 8 teams fighting for 5 playoff spots. This assumes that only the NFC West champion will make the playoffs (likely but not a guarantee), the Cowboys at 1-4 are done (hard to see them going 8-3 and 9-7 probably isn't a playoff team anyway), and the Bucs 3-2 is simply an artifact of an easy first two games. And the 8 includes Washington and Minnesota, neither of whom are necessarily good.
Unfortunately there's a bad, bad side. The Bears next three weeks are Washington at home, bye, and at Buffalo. They should be 6-2 after that but the Redskins have shown some flashes; we can re-assess in another two hours. However the second half of the season is a nightmare. Except for one game at Detroit, they play potential playoff team every week. By the time they play the Vikings in week 15, Minnesota's goose may have been cooked but that still looks to be team you won't walk over. The good news is the Jets, Patriots, and Eagles all come to Soldier Field which means they're likely to win one of those. Still 3-5 or even 2-6 isn't out of the question.
You play the games one at a time, but basically the Bears have to beat Washington and Buffalo then home they can manage to go 4-4 the rest of the way and finish at 10-6, which almost certainly gets them in the playoffs. Or it's going to be a disappointing season that started 4-1 and didn't finish with a playoff berth, which would sadly mean the end for Lovie Smith.
Showing posts with label chicago sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chicago sports. Show all posts
Sunday, October 17
Tuesday, September 14
Trip to Chicago (Vacation)
We spent most of this past week in Chicago. We went for Monica's niece's first birthday party. Her actual birthday was two weeks before, but they scheduled the party around when we could be in town. How nice.
Usually when we go to Chicago for a family event, our trip is all spending time with family and not really a vacation. The most touristy thing we do is "go to the mall". But we actually managed to combine a bit of vacation with this trip. With three young kids in the house, Monica and I wisely chose to stay in a hotel, which gave us some space but also meant we weren't tied to the family schedule. In part because of that, we actually got to play tourist.
Sunday was about Lily's birthday party, a nice brunch buffet at a local hall, which coincidentally was a 5-minute walk from our hotel. Then we headed to Monica's sister's house to watch the Storm-Mercury game (well, I watched) and hang out. Monday we went to the Cubs game which was a unique experience. Monica got tickets at Costco to sit on a rooftop across the street from the ballpark. The provide an all-you-can eat and drink menu along with first-come, first served seating. We were on the lower roof deck, protected from the weather and with a surprisingly good view of the field from beyond right field. They also have TVs set up so you don't miss anything and bathrooms and what not. Between the four of us, we had one beer, but a lot of people must have run a beer per inning. It's come a long way from when people used to sit on the roofs with lawn chairs and a charcoal grill. I'd certainly recommend trying it once and it's probably a great way to see the game when the Cubs make the playoffs again. But I think I prefer to be in the ballpark, closer to the action.
We drove back after the game and since it was Labor Day, there was surprisingly little traffic. Was actually a pleasant drive rather than a long aggravation. Went out to dinner at Claim Jumper (Monica's favorite) and had salads, since none of us were very hungry after lunch.
Tuesday we went to Long Grove and walked around the shop with Sandra and Ariana. Had a nice lunch and bought lots of stuff (see clothes, Monica) but it was sad to see the place basically deserted. Spent Tuesday evening cooking brisket for Rosh Hashanah and cooking dinner (pasta, rice) for the sick bay. Wednesday Monica and I went downtown to the Planetarium and then browsing along the Miracle Mile. We saw social networking at its best. After I posted on Facebook that I was in downtown Chicago, one of my poker buddies saw it and text messaged me about meeting for lunch. We were able to meet him without any advance planning -- the way Facebook places should work. Raced home later than we planned and got to Sandra's for a nice holiday dinner.
Thursday AM we were up before the crack of dawn to catch our plane home.
Seems like we did a lot in what was really four days in Chicago.
Usually when we go to Chicago for a family event, our trip is all spending time with family and not really a vacation. The most touristy thing we do is "go to the mall". But we actually managed to combine a bit of vacation with this trip. With three young kids in the house, Monica and I wisely chose to stay in a hotel, which gave us some space but also meant we weren't tied to the family schedule. In part because of that, we actually got to play tourist.
Sunday was about Lily's birthday party, a nice brunch buffet at a local hall, which coincidentally was a 5-minute walk from our hotel. Then we headed to Monica's sister's house to watch the Storm-Mercury game (well, I watched) and hang out. Monday we went to the Cubs game which was a unique experience. Monica got tickets at Costco to sit on a rooftop across the street from the ballpark. The provide an all-you-can eat and drink menu along with first-come, first served seating. We were on the lower roof deck, protected from the weather and with a surprisingly good view of the field from beyond right field. They also have TVs set up so you don't miss anything and bathrooms and what not. Between the four of us, we had one beer, but a lot of people must have run a beer per inning. It's come a long way from when people used to sit on the roofs with lawn chairs and a charcoal grill. I'd certainly recommend trying it once and it's probably a great way to see the game when the Cubs make the playoffs again. But I think I prefer to be in the ballpark, closer to the action.
We drove back after the game and since it was Labor Day, there was surprisingly little traffic. Was actually a pleasant drive rather than a long aggravation. Went out to dinner at Claim Jumper (Monica's favorite) and had salads, since none of us were very hungry after lunch.
Tuesday we went to Long Grove and walked around the shop with Sandra and Ariana. Had a nice lunch and bought lots of stuff (see clothes, Monica) but it was sad to see the place basically deserted. Spent Tuesday evening cooking brisket for Rosh Hashanah and cooking dinner (pasta, rice) for the sick bay. Wednesday Monica and I went downtown to the Planetarium and then browsing along the Miracle Mile. We saw social networking at its best. After I posted on Facebook that I was in downtown Chicago, one of my poker buddies saw it and text messaged me about meeting for lunch. We were able to meet him without any advance planning -- the way Facebook places should work. Raced home later than we planned and got to Sandra's for a nice holiday dinner.
Thursday AM we were up before the crack of dawn to catch our plane home.
Seems like we did a lot in what was really four days in Chicago.
Saturday, July 31
July Update
It's pretty clear that my blog has been neglected the past month. Even without a 9-5 job July is pretty crazy busy. I looked at the start of the month and there were about 5 days where Monica and I were actually free in the evenings and two of them were last night and tonight. A couple others opened up, but it's busy, busy, busy.
Softball really becomes a dominant factor in July. We have weeknight games which are always challenging to field a team. The playoffs start and takes a lot of time to get my team RSVPs and get ready for games. As league commissioner there are a lot of little things to deal with -- questions, complaints, issues, players going postal on umpires, etc. Oh and then I actually have to play softball. We won our first two games, including knocking off the #1 seed which was a great start. But then a bit injured and a bit shorthanded dropped our next two to finish in 3rd place. 3rd out of 11 teams isn't bad but when you think you have a championship caliber team and there are only 4 real contenders, 3rd of 4 isn't that exciting. Still we had a pretty good year, had a lot of fun, and were well behaved. My team actually likes each other which is a good thing.
Mariners. Yuck. Still going to a lot of games and watching/listening to my team. Cubs, ditto though obviously I'm not going to games. Can baseball season be over yet? I can't recall a year where my teams had so much "potential" and were so terrible. Can't believe the excitement is the Cubs reaching for .500 and the Mariners trying to avoid 100 losses.
Busy around the house. Deck is done. Hardwood floors are done. I put in grout between the hardwood floor and the tile edges. Learned a lot and will be easier next time. Of course, "next time" will probably be 20 years down the road and I won't remember anything. Don't you hate when that happens. Have been watering plants and the lawn now that summer has arrived and it doesn't rain anymore. Sadly everything is too wet in May and June and then dies in July and August. Re-arranged the art with help from my parents.
My mom and dad visited for 5 days last weekend and I spent a lot of time running around town with them. We mainly spent time at the Belleve Arts Fairs. Monica and I bought a few things for our house and my parents found an anniversary gift for us -- though we have to pick what we want and order it -- but I'm not sure they actually bought anything despite hours of looking at arts and crafts. They also helped with hanging art as noted. They are helpful, but it's really more their presence inspires me to hang things up. And dad likes putting up pictures.
Tommy has been getting acupuncture twice a week and will start the underwater treadmill next week. We're trying to strengthen his back and legs or at least make sure they don't get any worse. Cocoa has horrible yeast infections in his ears that won't quite clear up. They're better especially in one ear, but we're still working on it. Hunny Bear is good. He's suddenly the easy one.
With all that, I really haven't played much poker. I active in online forums thinking about my game, but really need to find time to play. Hard to believe, but someone it never quite happens.
Softball really becomes a dominant factor in July. We have weeknight games which are always challenging to field a team. The playoffs start and takes a lot of time to get my team RSVPs and get ready for games. As league commissioner there are a lot of little things to deal with -- questions, complaints, issues, players going postal on umpires, etc. Oh and then I actually have to play softball. We won our first two games, including knocking off the #1 seed which was a great start. But then a bit injured and a bit shorthanded dropped our next two to finish in 3rd place. 3rd out of 11 teams isn't bad but when you think you have a championship caliber team and there are only 4 real contenders, 3rd of 4 isn't that exciting. Still we had a pretty good year, had a lot of fun, and were well behaved. My team actually likes each other which is a good thing.
Mariners. Yuck. Still going to a lot of games and watching/listening to my team. Cubs, ditto though obviously I'm not going to games. Can baseball season be over yet? I can't recall a year where my teams had so much "potential" and were so terrible. Can't believe the excitement is the Cubs reaching for .500 and the Mariners trying to avoid 100 losses.
Busy around the house. Deck is done. Hardwood floors are done. I put in grout between the hardwood floor and the tile edges. Learned a lot and will be easier next time. Of course, "next time" will probably be 20 years down the road and I won't remember anything. Don't you hate when that happens. Have been watering plants and the lawn now that summer has arrived and it doesn't rain anymore. Sadly everything is too wet in May and June and then dies in July and August. Re-arranged the art with help from my parents.
My mom and dad visited for 5 days last weekend and I spent a lot of time running around town with them. We mainly spent time at the Belleve Arts Fairs. Monica and I bought a few things for our house and my parents found an anniversary gift for us -- though we have to pick what we want and order it -- but I'm not sure they actually bought anything despite hours of looking at arts and crafts. They also helped with hanging art as noted. They are helpful, but it's really more their presence inspires me to hang things up. And dad likes putting up pictures.
Tommy has been getting acupuncture twice a week and will start the underwater treadmill next week. We're trying to strengthen his back and legs or at least make sure they don't get any worse. Cocoa has horrible yeast infections in his ears that won't quite clear up. They're better especially in one ear, but we're still working on it. Hunny Bear is good. He's suddenly the easy one.
With all that, I really haven't played much poker. I active in online forums thinking about my game, but really need to find time to play. Hard to believe, but someone it never quite happens.
Thursday, July 8
Piniella
Just had to vent as there are those who think Lou is a great manager.
Much as it pains me to admit, Derrek Lee is done. This is hard to believe for a guy who was a superstar last year but 35-year-old first baseman often fall off a cliff. Lee's OPS by month are 679, 733, 706, and 638 so far in July. Anyone can have a bad month simply by not being "on" and getting unlucky. Lee has had one bad month and two terrible months. Digging deeper, Lee can't hit a fastball anymore. It's possible he's hurt and not admitting it but either way he's totally unproductive. Yet Piniella has run Lee out there every day hitting 3rd or 4th in the lineup. And here's the thing, if I can figure out Lee is done, why can't Piniella. Meanwhile he can't figure out how to get playing time for his four outfielders.
Here's an idea -- have one of them take fielding practice at first base. I suspect none of them have played first on a regular basis since high school if ever, but for a player with center fielder skills, first base should be easy to learn. Might not make Fukudome the every day 1B, but with a fly ball pitcher on the mound and facing a right-hander that's the type of thing winning teams do. And if you're going to play Lee, hit hit 6th or 7th.
Thankfully it sounds more and more like Lou is done after this year.
Much as it pains me to admit, Derrek Lee is done. This is hard to believe for a guy who was a superstar last year but 35-year-old first baseman often fall off a cliff. Lee's OPS by month are 679, 733, 706, and 638 so far in July. Anyone can have a bad month simply by not being "on" and getting unlucky. Lee has had one bad month and two terrible months. Digging deeper, Lee can't hit a fastball anymore. It's possible he's hurt and not admitting it but either way he's totally unproductive. Yet Piniella has run Lee out there every day hitting 3rd or 4th in the lineup. And here's the thing, if I can figure out Lee is done, why can't Piniella. Meanwhile he can't figure out how to get playing time for his four outfielders.
Here's an idea -- have one of them take fielding practice at first base. I suspect none of them have played first on a regular basis since high school if ever, but for a player with center fielder skills, first base should be easy to learn. Might not make Fukudome the every day 1B, but with a fly ball pitcher on the mound and facing a right-hander that's the type of thing winning teams do. And if you're going to play Lee, hit hit 6th or 7th.
Thankfully it sounds more and more like Lou is done after this year.
Friday, June 25
Cubs Update
"Big Z is on a short leash"
From short leash to dog house in less than 24 hours. At least it gets Gorzelanny back in the rotation.
I loved Piniella's comment, basically how do you blame the defense when the guy hits the ball in the seats.
From short leash to dog house in less than 24 hours. At least it gets Gorzelanny back in the rotation.
I loved Piniella's comment, basically how do you blame the defense when the guy hits the ball in the seats.
Thursday, June 24
The Idiocy of the Cubs
The Cubs are in town which happens about once every 6 years, so I spent much of the past three days at the Mariners games. Looking at the talent on the team, I've been puzzled at why the Cubs have struggled this year. The starting pitching is so good, Zambrano has spent much of the year in the pen. Marshall and Marmol are great to close out games. And there's a collection of pretty good hitters.
Having looked closer, it's pretty apparent that there are two things going on. First, despite the names and reputations on the infielders they've been terrible this year. In fact Lee, Theriot, Castro, and Ramirez have all played below replacement level. That pretty much kills the offense. Lee's OPS is down 250 points from last year and he's played below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection. Theriot and Ramirez are below their 10% as well. In fact Ramirez put up 200 of the worst at bats ever before going on the DL. These three guys are 6 wins worse than projected already. To some degree, you can't do anything about good players sucking.
But then there's an insane about of stupid decision making going on. Lou Piniella is beloved in Seattle as the manager who got the Mariners to the playoffs, but I've never been impressed. The Cubs best hitters this year are Colvin, Soriano, Byrd, and Soto. It took until June before Colvin became a regular, Soriano is only playing 2/3 of the time, Soto spent most of the year hitting 7th or 8th and recently lost his starting job to Koyie Hill (who can't hit worth a lick). The Cubs worst hitters are Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, and Lee. Lee has hit 3rd or 4th all season, Theriot has hit leadoff until recently and Baker has been given the 3rd base job with Ramirez hurt. Now batting order doesn't matter much, but you have to think that getting the best hitters in the lineup every day at the top of the order and putting the weaker hitters at the bottom couldn't hurt.
Wait, but then there's the pitching. Tom Gorzelanny isn't the name that some of the others are but he was the Cubs best starter last year, though he had a terrible ERA because of a 62% strand rate -- a level so low it has to be bad luck. And this year he's been striking on > 1 batter per inning something matched by only 4 NL starters. He's probably the Cubs best starter again yet he's relegated to the bullpen, where he's been ineffective. That said, it's a pretty tough call who to put in the pen. Zambrano and Lilly are the 5th and 6th best starters but the Cubs have invested a lot in them and really need the big three to succeed. But Gorz has been too good to NOT to go every 5 days. Much like Colvin, it doesn't matter which OF you sit because he's better than all of them. Personally I'd put Lilly in the pen to see if he can get his act together but Big Z is on a short leash. Or I'd think about something radical like a six-man rotation letting them pitch a bit deeper into games.
That said, with the complete disaster by the infield, this team is dead in the water. But they're also making dumb decisions on a daily basis that cost the team runs and wins.
If there's a silver lining, it's doubtful Piniella will be back. I expect him to "retire" and become a broadcaster.
Having looked closer, it's pretty apparent that there are two things going on. First, despite the names and reputations on the infielders they've been terrible this year. In fact Lee, Theriot, Castro, and Ramirez have all played below replacement level. That pretty much kills the offense. Lee's OPS is down 250 points from last year and he's played below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection. Theriot and Ramirez are below their 10% as well. In fact Ramirez put up 200 of the worst at bats ever before going on the DL. These three guys are 6 wins worse than projected already. To some degree, you can't do anything about good players sucking.
But then there's an insane about of stupid decision making going on. Lou Piniella is beloved in Seattle as the manager who got the Mariners to the playoffs, but I've never been impressed. The Cubs best hitters this year are Colvin, Soriano, Byrd, and Soto. It took until June before Colvin became a regular, Soriano is only playing 2/3 of the time, Soto spent most of the year hitting 7th or 8th and recently lost his starting job to Koyie Hill (who can't hit worth a lick). The Cubs worst hitters are Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, and Lee. Lee has hit 3rd or 4th all season, Theriot has hit leadoff until recently and Baker has been given the 3rd base job with Ramirez hurt. Now batting order doesn't matter much, but you have to think that getting the best hitters in the lineup every day at the top of the order and putting the weaker hitters at the bottom couldn't hurt.
Wait, but then there's the pitching. Tom Gorzelanny isn't the name that some of the others are but he was the Cubs best starter last year, though he had a terrible ERA because of a 62% strand rate -- a level so low it has to be bad luck. And this year he's been striking on > 1 batter per inning something matched by only 4 NL starters. He's probably the Cubs best starter again yet he's relegated to the bullpen, where he's been ineffective. That said, it's a pretty tough call who to put in the pen. Zambrano and Lilly are the 5th and 6th best starters but the Cubs have invested a lot in them and really need the big three to succeed. But Gorz has been too good to NOT to go every 5 days. Much like Colvin, it doesn't matter which OF you sit because he's better than all of them. Personally I'd put Lilly in the pen to see if he can get his act together but Big Z is on a short leash. Or I'd think about something radical like a six-man rotation letting them pitch a bit deeper into games.
That said, with the complete disaster by the infield, this team is dead in the water. But they're also making dumb decisions on a daily basis that cost the team runs and wins.
If there's a silver lining, it's doubtful Piniella will be back. I expect him to "retire" and become a broadcaster.
Wednesday, October 7
NFL So Far
I figure it takes three weeks to really have any idea about the football season. Any given game can be an outlier and with two games it's hard to know which is real and which is the outlier. After four weeks, we have a really good idea.
The Browns, Chiefs, Raiders, Redskins, Lions, Buccaneers, Rams, and Panthers are terrible. Despite being 2-2, Washington has beaten Rams and Buccaneers, by five points total, and lost to the Lions. Incredibly they get the Panthers and Chiefs next and might make it to 3-3 or 4-2; but then they'll finish 2-8 or 1-9. If Matt Hasselback doesn't return soon, the Seahawks join that group. That's a quarter of the league that's horrible.
Giants, Ravens, Patriots, Colts, and Saints appear to be the elite teams. Despite being 4-0, I'm not convinced the Broncos and Vikings are better than average the rest of the way; of course 6-6 will get them to 10-6 and likely playoffs. Next batch of teams -- Bears, Bengals (maybe), Eagles, Falcons (maybe), and 49ers (maybe).
The rest of the league looks mediocre. Despite being 0-4, the Titans should be decent. Of course, you can't overcome an 0-4 start and make the playoffs.
Check back in 12 weeks.
The Browns, Chiefs, Raiders, Redskins, Lions, Buccaneers, Rams, and Panthers are terrible. Despite being 2-2, Washington has beaten Rams and Buccaneers, by five points total, and lost to the Lions. Incredibly they get the Panthers and Chiefs next and might make it to 3-3 or 4-2; but then they'll finish 2-8 or 1-9. If Matt Hasselback doesn't return soon, the Seahawks join that group. That's a quarter of the league that's horrible.
Giants, Ravens, Patriots, Colts, and Saints appear to be the elite teams. Despite being 4-0, I'm not convinced the Broncos and Vikings are better than average the rest of the way; of course 6-6 will get them to 10-6 and likely playoffs. Next batch of teams -- Bears, Bengals (maybe), Eagles, Falcons (maybe), and 49ers (maybe).
The rest of the league looks mediocre. Despite being 0-4, the Titans should be decent. Of course, you can't overcome an 0-4 start and make the playoffs.
Check back in 12 weeks.
Sunday, October 26
NFL Update
At the start of the season, I remarked that the Bears could be pretty good if they got average play at QB and RB. Well Kyle Orton has actually been quite good this year. Not at Pro Bowl level but in the top 1/3 of QBs in the league, outperforming well-known names like Manning and Favre. Likewise Matt Forte has been an average running back. While that doesn't sound like much, last year Cedric Benson was so bad that his NFL career is over.
The Bears are 4-3 but if not for a fluky and poorly played final 30 seconds against the Falcons would be 5-2. And with some luck could have been 6-1! They aren't awesome, but they look like a playoff caliber team. As well, the league is pretty even with a lot of teams within a game of 500 so anything could happen in the playoffs.
The Bears are 4-3 but if not for a fluky and poorly played final 30 seconds against the Falcons would be 5-2. And with some luck could have been 6-1! They aren't awesome, but they look like a playoff caliber team. As well, the league is pretty even with a lot of teams within a game of 500 so anything could happen in the playoffs.
Monday, October 6
Playoff FIrst Round
Yuck, yuck, and more yuck.
I'm not sure whether I'm more sad, frustrated, or embarrassed by the Cubs performance. Monica's sister and brother-in-law attended game 1 in Chicago, Monica went to game 2, and I went to LA for the weekend for game 3 (and what I expected would be game 4). What a waste of a season. And a double-whammy for me on top of the Storm's post season.
On the other hand, I had the other three series pegged right. I actually had Phillies in 4 originally, but didn't like picking them all to be four game series.
Red Sox in 7 and Phillies in 6 in the LCS.
I'm not sure whether I'm more sad, frustrated, or embarrassed by the Cubs performance. Monica's sister and brother-in-law attended game 1 in Chicago, Monica went to game 2, and I went to LA for the weekend for game 3 (and what I expected would be game 4). What a waste of a season. And a double-whammy for me on top of the Storm's post season.
On the other hand, I had the other three series pegged right. I actually had Phillies in 4 originally, but didn't like picking them all to be four game series.
Red Sox in 7 and Phillies in 6 in the LCS.
Monday, September 29
Baseball Playoffs
After my previous post, the Brewers won 5 of 6 and passed the "great collapse" tag over to the Mets who went 3-4.
Monica is headed to Chicago Tuesday night for the Cubs games Wednesday and Thursday, and I've just booked tickets to head to LA for the Saturday and Sunday games against the Dodgers. Yeh, we're excited about the Cubs in the playoffs and being the favorite to win the NL.
Predictions:
Cubs over the Dodgers in 4. This is a bad mismatch but it's hard to sweep.
Phillies over Brewers in 3. Likewise I don't think this is close, especially with Sheets hurt. The Brewers play poor defense, have a bad bullpen, and were lucky to get in the playoffs with a hot final weak AND the Mets collapse. I don't believe Sabathia can continue to pitch like he has on short rest and facing a quality offense.
Red Sox over Angels in 4. I really should get money down on this. The wisdom is the Angels are the best team in baseball, but I'd argue that they are at best the 3rd best team in the American League. They have the most wins, but beat up on a terrible division. In run differential, they're 6th in the AL. Home field advantage doesn't make up for team quality disadvantage. Angels don't even have the better closer here.
Rays over Twins in 5, White Sox in 4. Another good team vs. not-so-good team series.
Monica is headed to Chicago Tuesday night for the Cubs games Wednesday and Thursday, and I've just booked tickets to head to LA for the Saturday and Sunday games against the Dodgers. Yeh, we're excited about the Cubs in the playoffs and being the favorite to win the NL.
Predictions:
Cubs over the Dodgers in 4. This is a bad mismatch but it's hard to sweep.
Phillies over Brewers in 3. Likewise I don't think this is close, especially with Sheets hurt. The Brewers play poor defense, have a bad bullpen, and were lucky to get in the playoffs with a hot final weak AND the Mets collapse. I don't believe Sabathia can continue to pitch like he has on short rest and facing a quality offense.
Red Sox over Angels in 4. I really should get money down on this. The wisdom is the Angels are the best team in baseball, but I'd argue that they are at best the 3rd best team in the American League. They have the most wins, but beat up on a terrible division. In run differential, they're 6th in the AL. Home field advantage doesn't make up for team quality disadvantage. Angels don't even have the better closer here.
Rays over Twins in 5, White Sox in 4. Another good team vs. not-so-good team series.
Sunday, September 21
Skunky beer
In honor of the Brewers, I made French toast for breakfast. Ask David for an explanation.
Because their collapse happened in the first part of September rather than the end of the season, I expect this will be forgotten and left off the list of great collapses. But the Brewers' fade is truly amazing. By Baseball Prospectus's post season odds, Milwaukee had an 85% chance at winning the wild card on 8/31 and 2/3 of the time they "missed" the wild card it was because they actually won the division. They were a virtual lock (95%) for the post season.
Over the next three weeks, they went 5-15, including 1-8 in their last nine games, fired their manager (too little, too late) an now have only a 16% chance at the wild card. That's an 80% drop in three weeks, and a 55% drop in 8 days.
It's not over yet, but the team hurt most by this could be the Cubs who might get a hot Phillies team in the NLDS rather than a 500 Dodgers team who got in the playoffs by default.
Because their collapse happened in the first part of September rather than the end of the season, I expect this will be forgotten and left off the list of great collapses. But the Brewers' fade is truly amazing. By Baseball Prospectus's post season odds, Milwaukee had an 85% chance at winning the wild card on 8/31 and 2/3 of the time they "missed" the wild card it was because they actually won the division. They were a virtual lock (95%) for the post season.
Over the next three weeks, they went 5-15, including 1-8 in their last nine games, fired their manager (too little, too late) an now have only a 16% chance at the wild card. That's an 80% drop in three weeks, and a 55% drop in 8 days.
It's not over yet, but the team hurt most by this could be the Cubs who might get a hot Phillies team in the NLDS rather than a 500 Dodgers team who got in the playoffs by default.
Sunday, September 14
NFL and the Bears
Baseball has always been my #1 sport and still is. However unlike other professional sports, the NFL plays once a week and there's something magical about being able to sit down for one day (really 6 hours) and catch a week's worth of action. So I'm psyched about the start of the NFL season and have all the games on NFL Sunday Ticket even though my favorite team the Bears aren't supposed to be very good this year.
The consensus is that the Bears are a 6-10 or 7-9 team. However I'm actually excited about their potential. This would look a lot smarter before the first game against the Colts but I was really thinking it. 6-10 is based on an assessment that like last season they have no running game and no quarterback. However if their second-round draft pick or perhaps even Adrian Peterson can emerge as a solid running threat and Orton is mediocre instead of terrible, this team is really good in a hurry. As well, I've always felt a decent offense would improve the defense as they'd get longer breaks, spend fewer plays on the field and not have to defend a short field as often.
So far, so good.
The consensus is that the Bears are a 6-10 or 7-9 team. However I'm actually excited about their potential. This would look a lot smarter before the first game against the Colts but I was really thinking it. 6-10 is based on an assessment that like last season they have no running game and no quarterback. However if their second-round draft pick or perhaps even Adrian Peterson can emerge as a solid running threat and Orton is mediocre instead of terrible, this team is really good in a hurry. As well, I've always felt a decent offense would improve the defense as they'd get longer breaks, spend fewer plays on the field and not have to defend a short field as often.
So far, so good.
Tuesday, June 17
Why I Don't Watch the NBA
or at least don't watch very much.
Tim Donaghy levels some pretty serious allegations at the league about influencing the outcome of games. Donaghy isn't exactly what we'd consider a fine, upstanding citizen and obviously we should believe this just because he says it's true. However one of three things are true:
We ALL know there different rules for superstars in the NBA. The Piston's "Jordan Rules" was always a double-entendre. Even if the league won't admit it, every TV commentator talks openly about it. The stars get protected -- the fans pay big $ to see them play or watch them on TV and really it's good for the league -- though it's clearly dishonest officiating.
Do I think the NBA is fixed -- predetermined like "pro wrestling"? No. But as far back as the year Jordan retired and the Bulls couldn't get a call, I've wondered if the officiating was totally on the up and up. It's ten+ years and I don't remember the plays, but I remember feeling the Bulls got jobbed. Maybe it's just as subtle as the selection of officials for the game or points of emphasis. Let's say the NBA didn't want the Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz to advance in a playoff series because Salt Lake City is a small city. By assigning referees who call lots of moving screens and let the defense get away with bumping and holding on the pick and roll, they can call the game "fairly" while putting the Jazz at a disadvantage.
I've watched most of the Magic games when I was visiting family in Orlando. And I've checked scores as I've passed by a TV. The one time I actually watched was the last minute of the LA-San Antonio game which solidified my view. It was the game when the San Antonio player was tackled with 1 second to go and prevented from shooting a game-winning or game-tying shot. When many inside and outside the game played it off as "you can't blow the whistle there" or "referees shouldn't decide the game' (ironic) , I wonder how you can honestly let the defense prevent a player from taking a shot.
Did anyone think the Celtics were going to win game 5 yesterday? It may be said half in jest, but with all the hype would the NBA let this be a 5-game series!?!
Tim Donaghy levels some pretty serious allegations at the league about influencing the outcome of games. Donaghy isn't exactly what we'd consider a fine, upstanding citizen and obviously we should believe this just because he says it's true. However one of three things are true:
- Donaghy's statements are 90% truth. Maybe he doesn't remember details exactly or maybe he exaggerated a bit.
- There's some basis to what he says -- some conversations between the league and the officials on how to call specific games, some things he was told though perhaps misunderstood -- but the specific examples are made up or speculation.
- Donaghy made the whole thing up.
We ALL know there different rules for superstars in the NBA. The Piston's "Jordan Rules" was always a double-entendre. Even if the league won't admit it, every TV commentator talks openly about it. The stars get protected -- the fans pay big $ to see them play or watch them on TV and really it's good for the league -- though it's clearly dishonest officiating.
Do I think the NBA is fixed -- predetermined like "pro wrestling"? No. But as far back as the year Jordan retired and the Bulls couldn't get a call, I've wondered if the officiating was totally on the up and up. It's ten+ years and I don't remember the plays, but I remember feeling the Bulls got jobbed. Maybe it's just as subtle as the selection of officials for the game or points of emphasis. Let's say the NBA didn't want the Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz to advance in a playoff series because Salt Lake City is a small city. By assigning referees who call lots of moving screens and let the defense get away with bumping and holding on the pick and roll, they can call the game "fairly" while putting the Jazz at a disadvantage.
I've watched most of the Magic games when I was visiting family in Orlando. And I've checked scores as I've passed by a TV. The one time I actually watched was the last minute of the LA-San Antonio game which solidified my view. It was the game when the San Antonio player was tackled with 1 second to go and prevented from shooting a game-winning or game-tying shot. When many inside and outside the game played it off as "you can't blow the whistle there" or "referees shouldn't decide the game' (ironic) , I wonder how you can honestly let the defense prevent a player from taking a shot.
Did anyone think the Celtics were going to win game 5 yesterday? It may be said half in jest, but with all the hype would the NBA let this be a 5-game series!?!
Monday, October 8
Pro Football
Truly the NFL has become the most bizarre major professional league out there. With a couple of exceptions on any given Sunday any team can win or lose.
The Bears got crushed in the fourth quarter against the Lions last week. And then Brett Favre tore them apart in the first half last night -- 19 of 22 for 243 yards and at least one incompletion was a spike. The Packers had played 4.5 solid games at this point. In the second half, Favre was 10 of 18 for only 79 yards and two interceptions and half the yardage came against the Bears prevent defense in the last series. Hard to believe it was the same two teams out there as it had been so far this season.
But it's bigger than the Bears, who moved to 2-3 with the win. The top four teams in the NFC last year were the Bears, Saints, Eagles, and Seahawks. The Seahawks are 3-2, the Eagles are 1-3, and the Saints are 0-4 and among the worst handful of teams in the NFL. In the AFC, the Chargers were 14-2 last year and have already lost three games, and the Jets went from the playoffs to 1-4. If the season ended today, the Raiders, Redskins, and Titans would be in the playoffs. Of course, there are still 12 weeks to go, so we'll see how it sorts out.
The Bears got crushed in the fourth quarter against the Lions last week. And then Brett Favre tore them apart in the first half last night -- 19 of 22 for 243 yards and at least one incompletion was a spike. The Packers had played 4.5 solid games at this point. In the second half, Favre was 10 of 18 for only 79 yards and two interceptions and half the yardage came against the Bears prevent defense in the last series. Hard to believe it was the same two teams out there as it had been so far this season.
But it's bigger than the Bears, who moved to 2-3 with the win. The top four teams in the NFC last year were the Bears, Saints, Eagles, and Seahawks. The Seahawks are 3-2, the Eagles are 1-3, and the Saints are 0-4 and among the worst handful of teams in the NFL. In the AFC, the Chargers were 14-2 last year and have already lost three games, and the Jets went from the playoffs to 1-4. If the season ended today, the Raiders, Redskins, and Titans would be in the playoffs. Of course, there are still 12 weeks to go, so we'll see how it sorts out.
Cubs
Blech! Wait 'til next year, I guess.
People will point to Piniella's decision to pull Zambrano or other moves, but simply the Cubs didn't hit or didn't hit in the right spots. In a best of five anything can happen, though a sweep is unlikely. And we almost had a four-way sweep in the first round. Barring a big Yankees comeback tonight, in four series you'd have to describe as near even, the losing team is going to win a total of ONE game.
People will point to Piniella's decision to pull Zambrano or other moves, but simply the Cubs didn't hit or didn't hit in the right spots. In a best of five anything can happen, though a sweep is unlikely. And we almost had a four-way sweep in the first round. Barring a big Yankees comeback tonight, in four series you'd have to describe as near even, the losing team is going to win a total of ONE game.
Monday, September 10
Cubs
<sigh>
Baseball Prospectus runs a daily Post Season Odds report. The math and process isn't that important but the end result gives you a good idea of a team's chances of making the playoffs. Since shortly after the all-star break, the Cubs have had a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs even breaking 60% a few times as recently as August 31st. With yesterday's loss and the Brewers win, not only did the Cubs drop out of first place but their post season chances feel to 36%, the lowest it's been since July 1.
Of more concern the Cubs have been playing some pretty bad baseball for a while now. Since peaking on July 30th, they're 17-22 and have been outscored 156-188. The starting pitching has been lousy, especially Zambrano and Hill who are supposed to be the aces of the staff. But they haven't helped themselves by replacing Sean Marshall with Steve Tracshel -- on what universe is that an upgrade -- or penciling in Jason Kendall's no hit, no field name into the top of the lineup. Kendall may be the worst player in major league baseball. Geovany Soto hit .353 with 31 2B and 26 HR in only 385 AB in AAA this year. Even the non-baseball fans reading this blog know that's pretty good. He's not the catcher of the future, he's by far the best catcher the Cubs have now. Play him!
Edited to add: Who says "they" can't hear you through the TV set? I made the post above and turned on the Cub game just as Derrek Lee hit a home run. The Cubs added four more runs and now lead 6-1.
Baseball Prospectus runs a daily Post Season Odds report. The math and process isn't that important but the end result gives you a good idea of a team's chances of making the playoffs. Since shortly after the all-star break, the Cubs have had a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs even breaking 60% a few times as recently as August 31st. With yesterday's loss and the Brewers win, not only did the Cubs drop out of first place but their post season chances feel to 36%, the lowest it's been since July 1.
Of more concern the Cubs have been playing some pretty bad baseball for a while now. Since peaking on July 30th, they're 17-22 and have been outscored 156-188. The starting pitching has been lousy, especially Zambrano and Hill who are supposed to be the aces of the staff. But they haven't helped themselves by replacing Sean Marshall with Steve Tracshel -- on what universe is that an upgrade -- or penciling in Jason Kendall's no hit, no field name into the top of the lineup. Kendall may be the worst player in major league baseball. Geovany Soto hit .353 with 31 2B and 26 HR in only 385 AB in AAA this year. Even the non-baseball fans reading this blog know that's pretty good. He's not the catcher of the future, he's by far the best catcher the Cubs have now. Play him!
Edited to add: Who says "they" can't hear you through the TV set? I made the post above and turned on the Cub game just as Derrek Lee hit a home run. The Cubs added four more runs and now lead 6-1.
Thursday, August 30
Cubs win, one month to go
The Cubs just finished the last difficult part of their schedule, playing the leading contenders in the NL Central at home and on the road against NL West leading Arizona and San Francisco. During that stretch they managed to go 7-5 and GAIN ground on the rest of the division.
The schedule the rest of the way is the easiest in baseball except that they're in a stretch where they play 24 games in 23 days thanks to a couple of makeup games against the Cardinals. On the other hand, the Cardinals don't have an off day the rest of the season. The Cubs have four games left against a team with a winning record. 15 of their remaining games are against Houston, Pittsburgh, and Florida, three of the four worst teams in the National League.
While the lead is only 2.5 games, it will take an incredible choke to not win the division.
The schedule the rest of the way is the easiest in baseball except that they're in a stretch where they play 24 games in 23 days thanks to a couple of makeup games against the Cardinals. On the other hand, the Cardinals don't have an off day the rest of the season. The Cubs have four games left against a team with a winning record. 15 of their remaining games are against Houston, Pittsburgh, and Florida, three of the four worst teams in the National League.
While the lead is only 2.5 games, it will take an incredible choke to not win the division.
Thursday, July 19
Cubs and Steins
On June 2nd, the Cubs lost their sixth game in a row to fall to a season worst 22-31 putting them in 5th place.
On June 3rd, Monica and I flew to Chicago. The Cubs not only snapped their losing streak that day but crushed the Braves 10-1.
Since Monica and I arrived, the Cubs are 27-13 and have moved into second place and are in the hunt for the NL Central title and the wild card.
You can call this a coincidence if you want, but I think it’s causation we just don’t understand yet. "Coincidentally" the Mariners have been hot since June 2nd as well.
On June 3rd, Monica and I flew to Chicago. The Cubs not only snapped their losing streak that day but crushed the Braves 10-1.
Since Monica and I arrived, the Cubs are 27-13 and have moved into second place and are in the hunt for the NL Central title and the wild card.
You can call this a coincidence if you want, but I think it’s causation we just don’t understand yet. "Coincidentally" the Mariners have been hot since June 2nd as well.
Monday, February 5
Super Bowl
Oh well. Wait 'til next year.
In brighter news, Monica and I became an aunt and uncle for the second time* last week. Her sister delivered Arianna Aristodemo Monday night just before 9 PM central time. She was 6 lbs, 11 oz and 18 1/4 inches long. She joins big brother Jonah who is three years old as Sandra and Gio's children. Monica is headed to Chicago this weekend to visit Jonah who's feeling a little bit neglected; part of that is he has a cold and can't be near the baby.
I post some pictures, but I haven't seen any yet :(
* Yeh, I know that doesn't really make sense, but you get the idea.
In brighter news, Monica and I became an aunt and uncle for the second time* last week. Her sister delivered Arianna Aristodemo Monday night just before 9 PM central time. She was 6 lbs, 11 oz and 18 1/4 inches long. She joins big brother Jonah who is three years old as Sandra and Gio's children. Monica is headed to Chicago this weekend to visit Jonah who's feeling a little bit neglected; part of that is he has a cold and can't be near the baby.
I post some pictures, but I haven't seen any yet :(
* Yeh, I know that doesn't really make sense, but you get the idea.
Saturday, February 3
Bulls beat the Sonics
(Note: don't miss my Super Bowl post below this one)
Monica and I watched the visiting Bulls beat the Sonics last night. This was another item we got at a charity auction. The game was on ESPN, so I imagine anyone who cares already saw it. It was a surprisingly good game in that it was close the whole way a relatively high scoring. This is likely the only NBA game I'll attend this season.
Many years ago I used to have a six or seven game plan for Sonics tickets. I watched them a lot on TV. I sat outside in line for tickets for the NBA Finals the year they lost game 7 in Houston. I went to the NBA Finals when they played the Bulls. Then they had their mid-90s implosion.
They became the first #1 seed to lose to a #8 seed in playoffs. The next season they tore down the Coliseum to build Key Arena and played in Tacoma. After making the fans trek to Tacoma (easily an hour in rush hour traffic), they rewarded them by being upset again in the first round of the playoffs after winning the first game. When they re-signed George Karl as coach after those two disasters, I decided they were hopeless and cancelled my ticket package and gave up on this team. I still look in the paper to see how they're doing and root for them to do well when they aren't playing the Bulls. I usually go once or twice a season when offered a free ticket, though I also turn down free tickets as often as I accept. To be fair, some of that is that the NBA in general is unwatchable at times -- when the final score is 86-79 I feel like they still owe us another quarter. I don't need to see 130-125 shootouts, but I'd like to see some offense. I believe I've bought tickets to one Sonics game in the past ten years, and that was to see Michael Jordan in his last season. Charity auctions don't count because the tickets are already paid for and neither the Sonics or the original buyer get any money.
For those who don't follow the NBA, the Sonics now have the fourth worst record in the league and are working on a 12-game road losing streak.
Monica and I watched the visiting Bulls beat the Sonics last night. This was another item we got at a charity auction. The game was on ESPN, so I imagine anyone who cares already saw it. It was a surprisingly good game in that it was close the whole way a relatively high scoring. This is likely the only NBA game I'll attend this season.
Many years ago I used to have a six or seven game plan for Sonics tickets. I watched them a lot on TV. I sat outside in line for tickets for the NBA Finals the year they lost game 7 in Houston. I went to the NBA Finals when they played the Bulls. Then they had their mid-90s implosion.
They became the first #1 seed to lose to a #8 seed in playoffs. The next season they tore down the Coliseum to build Key Arena and played in Tacoma. After making the fans trek to Tacoma (easily an hour in rush hour traffic), they rewarded them by being upset again in the first round of the playoffs after winning the first game. When they re-signed George Karl as coach after those two disasters, I decided they were hopeless and cancelled my ticket package and gave up on this team. I still look in the paper to see how they're doing and root for them to do well when they aren't playing the Bulls. I usually go once or twice a season when offered a free ticket, though I also turn down free tickets as often as I accept. To be fair, some of that is that the NBA in general is unwatchable at times -- when the final score is 86-79 I feel like they still owe us another quarter. I don't need to see 130-125 shootouts, but I'd like to see some offense. I believe I've bought tickets to one Sonics game in the past ten years, and that was to see Michael Jordan in his last season. Charity auctions don't count because the tickets are already paid for and neither the Sonics or the original buyer get any money.
For those who don't follow the NBA, the Sonics now have the fourth worst record in the league and are working on a 12-game road losing streak.
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