The Idiocy of the Cubs

The Cubs are in town which happens about once every 6 years, so I spent much of the past three days at the Mariners games.  Looking at the talent on the team, I've been puzzled at why the Cubs have struggled this year.  The starting pitching is so good, Zambrano has spent much of the year in the pen.  Marshall and Marmol are great to close out games. And there's a collection of pretty good hitters.

Having looked closer, it's pretty apparent that there are two things going on.  First, despite the names and reputations on the infielders they've been terrible this year.  In fact Lee, Theriot, Castro, and Ramirez have all played below replacement level.  That pretty much kills the offense.  Lee's OPS is down 250 points from last year and he's played below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection.  Theriot and Ramirez are below their 10% as well.  In fact Ramirez put up 200 of the worst at bats ever before going on the DL.  These three guys are 6 wins worse than projected already. To some degree, you can't do anything about good players sucking.

But then there's an insane about of stupid decision making going on.  Lou Piniella is beloved in Seattle as the manager who got the Mariners to the playoffs, but I've never been impressed.  The Cubs best hitters this year are Colvin, Soriano, Byrd, and Soto. It took until June before Colvin became a regular, Soriano is only playing 2/3 of the time, Soto spent most of the year hitting 7th or 8th and recently lost his starting job to Koyie Hill (who can't hit worth a lick).  The Cubs worst hitters are Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, and Lee.  Lee has hit 3rd or 4th all season, Theriot has hit leadoff until recently and Baker has been given the 3rd base job with Ramirez hurt.  Now batting order doesn't matter much, but you have to think that getting the best hitters in the lineup every day at the top of the order and putting the weaker hitters at the bottom couldn't hurt.

Wait, but then there's the pitching.   Tom Gorzelanny isn't the name that some of the others are but he was the Cubs best starter last year, though he had a terrible ERA because of a 62% strand rate -- a level so low it has to be bad luck.  And this year he's been striking on > 1 batter per inning something matched by only 4 NL starters.  He's probably the Cubs best starter again yet he's relegated to the bullpen, where he's been ineffective.  That said, it's a pretty tough call who to put in the pen.  Zambrano and Lilly are the 5th and 6th best starters but the Cubs have invested a lot in them and really need the big three to succeed.  But Gorz has been too good to NOT to go every 5 days. Much like Colvin, it doesn't matter which OF you sit because he's better than all of them.  Personally I'd put Lilly in the pen to see if he can get his act together but Big Z is on a short leash.  Or I'd think about something radical like a six-man rotation letting them pitch a bit deeper into games.

That said, with the complete disaster by the infield, this team is dead in the water.  But they're also making dumb decisions on a daily basis that cost the team runs and wins.

If there's a silver lining, it's doubtful Piniella will be back.  I expect him to "retire" and become a broadcaster.