inspired by "redright's" series of a similar name
This actually happened a couple of weeks ago but I still want to share. I advertised a number of Mariners bobbleheads on Craigslist. I was contact by someone asking to purchase 5 of them and offering me $85 which he said was $10 off what I had asked. I noted that Griffey had been sold but I could sell the other 4 for the same $85 which was $10 off. I hope he mis-added and wasn't trying to scam me. He then changed his mind on which ones he wanted but the cost was the same. We agreed to meet over the weekend, likely Saturday, when he'd be in the Factoria area.
Saturday afternoon he emailed me and said the day was busy so we set up an 8 AM Sunday meeting time (I had plans during the day). I arrived at 8, waited a few minutes, then checked my email to see he had said his car was frozen shut and he couldn't make it. It was cold but not cold enough to freeze car doors. I responded that we could touch base around 5 PM. I called him at 5 and he never called back. I emailed him Monday or Tuesday and never heard back.
I don't mind so much that he reneged on a deal. That's the nature of dealing with people through Craigslist. That he gave me the run around over the weekend and didn't have the courtesy to call, text, or email that he was sorry but he had to back out of the deal is what gets me. Given the energy I spent on this transaction, I was barely making any money even if he did show. Acceptance reasons for this behavior are 1) death, 2) brain death.
Showing posts with label ranting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ranting. Show all posts
Saturday, October 30
Sunday, October 24
Playoffs x2
With the college football season nearing the end of October, talk of a playoff system is heating up again. Having 7 teams undefeated and a handful of very strong one-loss teams makes the noise a bit louder than in typical years. As well, it's almost a certainty that Boise State and either TCU or Utah, who play each other, will wind up undefeated. And so there's a chance we'll have three or four undefeated teams prior to bowls. And thus a "deserving" team would be left out of the Championship if that happens.
The problem with a playoff system, and why I don't like any of the ideas I've heard, is what we're seeing in baseball this year. The playoffs have been competitive and entertaining for sure. And having the Rangers and the Giants in the World Series is a compelling story and a nice change from Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies. However each league is represented by the weakest of its four playoff teams. We played 162 games to determine that the Yankees, Rays, Phillies, and Braves were the best team and then played 10-12 games to decide to send someone else to the World Series.
I'm not suggesting we go back to two divisions and only four team in the playoffs. However I think college football "fans" are oblivious to what would happen in a playoff system. I think there will be a lot of noise about TCU/Utah being left out of the National Championship, but would having Alabama play Missouri or Michigan State for the Championship make anyone feel better about the title?
The problem with a playoff system, and why I don't like any of the ideas I've heard, is what we're seeing in baseball this year. The playoffs have been competitive and entertaining for sure. And having the Rangers and the Giants in the World Series is a compelling story and a nice change from Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies. However each league is represented by the weakest of its four playoff teams. We played 162 games to determine that the Yankees, Rays, Phillies, and Braves were the best team and then played 10-12 games to decide to send someone else to the World Series.
I'm not suggesting we go back to two divisions and only four team in the playoffs. However I think college football "fans" are oblivious to what would happen in a playoff system. I think there will be a lot of noise about TCU/Utah being left out of the National Championship, but would having Alabama play Missouri or Michigan State for the Championship make anyone feel better about the title?
Friday, August 20
Maybe There's Hope for Customer Service
One of the reasons I started this blog was a place to vent. Sometimes about stupid thing or frustrating sports teams, but often about bad customer service. And part of why I invested in a restaurant many years ago is I was so disappointed with the terrible service in restaurants that I felt if you could actually run a place with a brain and treat customers well, you'd succeed.
Monica have had some unbelievably bad experiences with people attempting to render customer services. Too many to list but here are a few examples. Monica ordered a hamburger without the sauce that usually comes on it. When it came with sauce she sent it back and they wiped the sauce off the bun and sent it back to her. We checked into a hotel and they gave us a key to the wrong room -- a room where someone was already checked in and Monica walked in on the couple. Fortunately they were sitting on the bed watching TV. And recently we tried out new house cleaners. You'd think people would want to make a good first impression to win your business. They called to say they'd be there between 2 and 3; that's a big range but OK. At 3:30 they called to say they were leaving Mercer Island and they arrived about 4 PM. I understand some technicians (plumber, electrician, computer repairman) could have a job be larger than they expected and run late. But how does a house cleaning job blow up and run over by two hours. We needed the house cleaned, but these people were "fired" before they ever started.
However, I'm glad to say that we've seen a few examples of good customer service of late which somewhat restores my faith in humanity.
(I thought I wrote about this before but can't find it.) Monica and I dined at Ruth's Chris Steak House in January. While nothing was so bad that we were really upset or I asked for a manager, we weren't exactly wowed the way we should be for fine dining. The only real problem was that Monica's fillet was undercooked then when they "fixed" it, the butter sauce made for a very crispy outside. I know from experience it's tricky to cook beef exactly right, but when you have "Steak" in your name you should get a steak right 95% of the time. Other things were minor and fixed as best they could at the time.
However, on the way home it dawned on us that they had problems with our table, our drinks, our salad, Monica's steak, and dessert. I send a nice but unhappy letter to the general manager to let them know about our experience. I got a phone call from the GM two days later who invited us to return on the house, much more than I asked for. Awesome.
And just this week. Expedia has a new "Priceline-like" feature where they'll sell you a discounted hotel without revealing its name. The downside is you don't know exactly which hotel you get and you can't cancel or change the reservation. I booked two rooms for our upcoming trip to Vancouver using this process. In reviewing my confirmation, I noticed that somehow the date got entered as 9/11 which is not what I needed. I called Expedia to ask if there was anything they could do since it was human error -- and I wasn't trying to beat the discount system. The customer rep called the hotel and they were gracious enough to cancel my reservation and refund a non-refundable payment. I'm not a once a month traveler, but I do use Expedia several times a year and they now have a very happy customer.
Monica made a massage appointment next door to the place where she works out and told the front desk person, who may be the manager, that she'd be coming from a workout. She'd done this before and it wasn't a problem. When she arrived, she apologized for being sweaty, and her massage therapist made some sort of snide remark about it. Monica decided to walk out since the guy apparently wasn't comfortable giving her a massage. At first I saw his side, but as I think about it, when I got for a massage they suggest I use the steam room or sauna first, so many people come a bit hot and sweaty. Anyway Monica told the front desk what happened at left. Later that night, Monica got an email from the manager apologizing for what happened, letting her know that therapist was no longer employed, and offering her a free massage if she'd like to come back. I think that's more than they needed to do, but they turned Monica from someone who will never come back and tell horror stories about the place into a likely regular customer... and one who will bring friends. And it cost them the price of one massage.
Monica have had some unbelievably bad experiences with people attempting to render customer services. Too many to list but here are a few examples. Monica ordered a hamburger without the sauce that usually comes on it. When it came with sauce she sent it back and they wiped the sauce off the bun and sent it back to her. We checked into a hotel and they gave us a key to the wrong room -- a room where someone was already checked in and Monica walked in on the couple. Fortunately they were sitting on the bed watching TV. And recently we tried out new house cleaners. You'd think people would want to make a good first impression to win your business. They called to say they'd be there between 2 and 3; that's a big range but OK. At 3:30 they called to say they were leaving Mercer Island and they arrived about 4 PM. I understand some technicians (plumber, electrician, computer repairman) could have a job be larger than they expected and run late. But how does a house cleaning job blow up and run over by two hours. We needed the house cleaned, but these people were "fired" before they ever started.
However, I'm glad to say that we've seen a few examples of good customer service of late which somewhat restores my faith in humanity.
(I thought I wrote about this before but can't find it.) Monica and I dined at Ruth's Chris Steak House in January. While nothing was so bad that we were really upset or I asked for a manager, we weren't exactly wowed the way we should be for fine dining. The only real problem was that Monica's fillet was undercooked then when they "fixed" it, the butter sauce made for a very crispy outside. I know from experience it's tricky to cook beef exactly right, but when you have "Steak" in your name you should get a steak right 95% of the time. Other things were minor and fixed as best they could at the time.
However, on the way home it dawned on us that they had problems with our table, our drinks, our salad, Monica's steak, and dessert. I send a nice but unhappy letter to the general manager to let them know about our experience. I got a phone call from the GM two days later who invited us to return on the house, much more than I asked for. Awesome.
And just this week. Expedia has a new "Priceline-like" feature where they'll sell you a discounted hotel without revealing its name. The downside is you don't know exactly which hotel you get and you can't cancel or change the reservation. I booked two rooms for our upcoming trip to Vancouver using this process. In reviewing my confirmation, I noticed that somehow the date got entered as 9/11 which is not what I needed. I called Expedia to ask if there was anything they could do since it was human error -- and I wasn't trying to beat the discount system. The customer rep called the hotel and they were gracious enough to cancel my reservation and refund a non-refundable payment. I'm not a once a month traveler, but I do use Expedia several times a year and they now have a very happy customer.
Monica made a massage appointment next door to the place where she works out and told the front desk person, who may be the manager, that she'd be coming from a workout. She'd done this before and it wasn't a problem. When she arrived, she apologized for being sweaty, and her massage therapist made some sort of snide remark about it. Monica decided to walk out since the guy apparently wasn't comfortable giving her a massage. At first I saw his side, but as I think about it, when I got for a massage they suggest I use the steam room or sauna first, so many people come a bit hot and sweaty. Anyway Monica told the front desk what happened at left. Later that night, Monica got an email from the manager apologizing for what happened, letting her know that therapist was no longer employed, and offering her a free massage if she'd like to come back. I think that's more than they needed to do, but they turned Monica from someone who will never come back and tell horror stories about the place into a likely regular customer... and one who will bring friends. And it cost them the price of one massage.
Saturday, August 14
Taxes
I finally finished my federal income taxes for 2009.
I've used TurboTax (or equivalent) for about 10 years. And as I look at the insane number of calculations and forms required to compute my taxes it's easy to remember why. However TurboTax has a horrible bug this year that wasted a ton of my time. It likely effects a small % of their users, but if it hits you, it grinds your computer to a halt. Basically if you have a large number of imported stock transactions AND you need to correct an error in these transactions which is common, the program uses a ton of memory and is very slow loading the imported transactions. Since I have a number of "managed accounts", I hit the limit quite easily. Fixing up the data that should have taken me an hour or two probably took 15-20 hours. All that time wasn't active -- much was click a button wait 5 minutes and do something else -- but it was too much. If I had known how long it would take, I might have taken a different route, like buying their competing software. Or paying someone to do our taxes. I'll have to see if they have this bug next year.
But they're done and I'm going to try to get a jump on 2010 taxes by doing a better job of tracking our donations.
I've used TurboTax (or equivalent) for about 10 years. And as I look at the insane number of calculations and forms required to compute my taxes it's easy to remember why. However TurboTax has a horrible bug this year that wasted a ton of my time. It likely effects a small % of their users, but if it hits you, it grinds your computer to a halt. Basically if you have a large number of imported stock transactions AND you need to correct an error in these transactions which is common, the program uses a ton of memory and is very slow loading the imported transactions. Since I have a number of "managed accounts", I hit the limit quite easily. Fixing up the data that should have taken me an hour or two probably took 15-20 hours. All that time wasn't active -- much was click a button wait 5 minutes and do something else -- but it was too much. If I had known how long it would take, I might have taken a different route, like buying their competing software. Or paying someone to do our taxes. I'll have to see if they have this bug next year.
But they're done and I'm going to try to get a jump on 2010 taxes by doing a better job of tracking our donations.
Thursday, July 8
Piniella
Just had to vent as there are those who think Lou is a great manager.
Much as it pains me to admit, Derrek Lee is done. This is hard to believe for a guy who was a superstar last year but 35-year-old first baseman often fall off a cliff. Lee's OPS by month are 679, 733, 706, and 638 so far in July. Anyone can have a bad month simply by not being "on" and getting unlucky. Lee has had one bad month and two terrible months. Digging deeper, Lee can't hit a fastball anymore. It's possible he's hurt and not admitting it but either way he's totally unproductive. Yet Piniella has run Lee out there every day hitting 3rd or 4th in the lineup. And here's the thing, if I can figure out Lee is done, why can't Piniella. Meanwhile he can't figure out how to get playing time for his four outfielders.
Here's an idea -- have one of them take fielding practice at first base. I suspect none of them have played first on a regular basis since high school if ever, but for a player with center fielder skills, first base should be easy to learn. Might not make Fukudome the every day 1B, but with a fly ball pitcher on the mound and facing a right-hander that's the type of thing winning teams do. And if you're going to play Lee, hit hit 6th or 7th.
Thankfully it sounds more and more like Lou is done after this year.
Much as it pains me to admit, Derrek Lee is done. This is hard to believe for a guy who was a superstar last year but 35-year-old first baseman often fall off a cliff. Lee's OPS by month are 679, 733, 706, and 638 so far in July. Anyone can have a bad month simply by not being "on" and getting unlucky. Lee has had one bad month and two terrible months. Digging deeper, Lee can't hit a fastball anymore. It's possible he's hurt and not admitting it but either way he's totally unproductive. Yet Piniella has run Lee out there every day hitting 3rd or 4th in the lineup. And here's the thing, if I can figure out Lee is done, why can't Piniella. Meanwhile he can't figure out how to get playing time for his four outfielders.
Here's an idea -- have one of them take fielding practice at first base. I suspect none of them have played first on a regular basis since high school if ever, but for a player with center fielder skills, first base should be easy to learn. Might not make Fukudome the every day 1B, but with a fly ball pitcher on the mound and facing a right-hander that's the type of thing winning teams do. And if you're going to play Lee, hit hit 6th or 7th.
Thankfully it sounds more and more like Lou is done after this year.
Thursday, June 24
The Idiocy of the Cubs
The Cubs are in town which happens about once every 6 years, so I spent much of the past three days at the Mariners games. Looking at the talent on the team, I've been puzzled at why the Cubs have struggled this year. The starting pitching is so good, Zambrano has spent much of the year in the pen. Marshall and Marmol are great to close out games. And there's a collection of pretty good hitters.
Having looked closer, it's pretty apparent that there are two things going on. First, despite the names and reputations on the infielders they've been terrible this year. In fact Lee, Theriot, Castro, and Ramirez have all played below replacement level. That pretty much kills the offense. Lee's OPS is down 250 points from last year and he's played below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection. Theriot and Ramirez are below their 10% as well. In fact Ramirez put up 200 of the worst at bats ever before going on the DL. These three guys are 6 wins worse than projected already. To some degree, you can't do anything about good players sucking.
But then there's an insane about of stupid decision making going on. Lou Piniella is beloved in Seattle as the manager who got the Mariners to the playoffs, but I've never been impressed. The Cubs best hitters this year are Colvin, Soriano, Byrd, and Soto. It took until June before Colvin became a regular, Soriano is only playing 2/3 of the time, Soto spent most of the year hitting 7th or 8th and recently lost his starting job to Koyie Hill (who can't hit worth a lick). The Cubs worst hitters are Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, and Lee. Lee has hit 3rd or 4th all season, Theriot has hit leadoff until recently and Baker has been given the 3rd base job with Ramirez hurt. Now batting order doesn't matter much, but you have to think that getting the best hitters in the lineup every day at the top of the order and putting the weaker hitters at the bottom couldn't hurt.
Wait, but then there's the pitching. Tom Gorzelanny isn't the name that some of the others are but he was the Cubs best starter last year, though he had a terrible ERA because of a 62% strand rate -- a level so low it has to be bad luck. And this year he's been striking on > 1 batter per inning something matched by only 4 NL starters. He's probably the Cubs best starter again yet he's relegated to the bullpen, where he's been ineffective. That said, it's a pretty tough call who to put in the pen. Zambrano and Lilly are the 5th and 6th best starters but the Cubs have invested a lot in them and really need the big three to succeed. But Gorz has been too good to NOT to go every 5 days. Much like Colvin, it doesn't matter which OF you sit because he's better than all of them. Personally I'd put Lilly in the pen to see if he can get his act together but Big Z is on a short leash. Or I'd think about something radical like a six-man rotation letting them pitch a bit deeper into games.
That said, with the complete disaster by the infield, this team is dead in the water. But they're also making dumb decisions on a daily basis that cost the team runs and wins.
If there's a silver lining, it's doubtful Piniella will be back. I expect him to "retire" and become a broadcaster.
Having looked closer, it's pretty apparent that there are two things going on. First, despite the names and reputations on the infielders they've been terrible this year. In fact Lee, Theriot, Castro, and Ramirez have all played below replacement level. That pretty much kills the offense. Lee's OPS is down 250 points from last year and he's played below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection. Theriot and Ramirez are below their 10% as well. In fact Ramirez put up 200 of the worst at bats ever before going on the DL. These three guys are 6 wins worse than projected already. To some degree, you can't do anything about good players sucking.
But then there's an insane about of stupid decision making going on. Lou Piniella is beloved in Seattle as the manager who got the Mariners to the playoffs, but I've never been impressed. The Cubs best hitters this year are Colvin, Soriano, Byrd, and Soto. It took until June before Colvin became a regular, Soriano is only playing 2/3 of the time, Soto spent most of the year hitting 7th or 8th and recently lost his starting job to Koyie Hill (who can't hit worth a lick). The Cubs worst hitters are Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, and Lee. Lee has hit 3rd or 4th all season, Theriot has hit leadoff until recently and Baker has been given the 3rd base job with Ramirez hurt. Now batting order doesn't matter much, but you have to think that getting the best hitters in the lineup every day at the top of the order and putting the weaker hitters at the bottom couldn't hurt.
Wait, but then there's the pitching. Tom Gorzelanny isn't the name that some of the others are but he was the Cubs best starter last year, though he had a terrible ERA because of a 62% strand rate -- a level so low it has to be bad luck. And this year he's been striking on > 1 batter per inning something matched by only 4 NL starters. He's probably the Cubs best starter again yet he's relegated to the bullpen, where he's been ineffective. That said, it's a pretty tough call who to put in the pen. Zambrano and Lilly are the 5th and 6th best starters but the Cubs have invested a lot in them and really need the big three to succeed. But Gorz has been too good to NOT to go every 5 days. Much like Colvin, it doesn't matter which OF you sit because he's better than all of them. Personally I'd put Lilly in the pen to see if he can get his act together but Big Z is on a short leash. Or I'd think about something radical like a six-man rotation letting them pitch a bit deeper into games.
That said, with the complete disaster by the infield, this team is dead in the water. But they're also making dumb decisions on a daily basis that cost the team runs and wins.
If there's a silver lining, it's doubtful Piniella will be back. I expect him to "retire" and become a broadcaster.
Saturday, October 10
College Football, SEC Dominates
Because of the baseball playoffs, my car radio is usually on ESPN Radio in the evenings, so in the mornings I've been listening to much more sports talk than normal.
There's a lot of talk about SEC dominance in football. Florida and Alabama are #1 and #2. And they've mentioned that the SEC has won the last three national championships. I was looking at it and was surprised the SEC run is actually deeper than that. LSU won after the 2003 season, Florida after 2006 and last year and LSU again in 2007. That's 4 of 6 and in 2004, Auburn finished 12-0 but was shut out of the title game by two other 12-0 teams. And Georgia and LSU have had top 3 finishes in years the SEC won the title.
So the interesting question is could you have two SEC team play for the National Championship. The consensus was "no" and I agree the pollsters wouldn't let it happen. But it's pretty stupid -- if Alabama and Florida are the clear best teams in the country, go undefeated and settle the SEC Championship in double overtime, and LSU is the third best team (losing only to Florida and Alabama) do you really want Cincinnati, Boise State, or USC in the the title game?
There's a lot of talk about SEC dominance in football. Florida and Alabama are #1 and #2. And they've mentioned that the SEC has won the last three national championships. I was looking at it and was surprised the SEC run is actually deeper than that. LSU won after the 2003 season, Florida after 2006 and last year and LSU again in 2007. That's 4 of 6 and in 2004, Auburn finished 12-0 but was shut out of the title game by two other 12-0 teams. And Georgia and LSU have had top 3 finishes in years the SEC won the title.
So the interesting question is could you have two SEC team play for the National Championship. The consensus was "no" and I agree the pollsters wouldn't let it happen. But it's pretty stupid -- if Alabama and Florida are the clear best teams in the country, go undefeated and settle the SEC Championship in double overtime, and LSU is the third best team (losing only to Florida and Alabama) do you really want Cincinnati, Boise State, or USC in the the title game?
Sunday, September 13
Maybe they need an exhibition season
The first half of the Rams-Seahawks game is the worst exhibition of pro football I've seen in a long time.
The Rams fumbled the opening kickoff and the Seahawks started the season on the Rams 19 yard line. Incomplete, incomplete, interception in the end zone. The Seahawks also turned the ball over on the first play of their third possession. Oh but it gets worse, check out the Rams next possession.
Incomplete pass, offensive holding, defensive offside, timeout Rams, incomplete pass, timeout Rams, bad snap followed by Bulger throwing the ball in the ground to avoid a sack (marginally legal), punt downed at the 4 and the Seahawks waste a challenge. One set of downs, six bad plays and that doesn't count the three incompletions.
Oh, it keeps going. The Rams have third and one on the Seahawks nine -- false start, delay of game, missed field goal.
With the half winding down the Seahawks attempt a 49-yard field goal which the Rams block and run back for a touchdown. Then the replay official notices the Rams had 12 men on the field.
One half: four turnovers, 11 penalties (nine by the Rams), two botched field goals, an a bad challenge.
Maybe if they had an exhibition season like baseball where the starters got to play under game conditions, it would look like pro football out there.
The Rams fumbled the opening kickoff and the Seahawks started the season on the Rams 19 yard line. Incomplete, incomplete, interception in the end zone. The Seahawks also turned the ball over on the first play of their third possession. Oh but it gets worse, check out the Rams next possession.
Incomplete pass, offensive holding, defensive offside, timeout Rams, incomplete pass, timeout Rams, bad snap followed by Bulger throwing the ball in the ground to avoid a sack (marginally legal), punt downed at the 4 and the Seahawks waste a challenge. One set of downs, six bad plays and that doesn't count the three incompletions.
Oh, it keeps going. The Rams have third and one on the Seahawks nine -- false start, delay of game, missed field goal.
With the half winding down the Seahawks attempt a 49-yard field goal which the Rams block and run back for a touchdown. Then the replay official notices the Rams had 12 men on the field.
One half: four turnovers, 11 penalties (nine by the Rams), two botched field goals, an a bad challenge.
Maybe if they had an exhibition season like baseball where the starters got to play under game conditions, it would look like pro football out there.
Sunday, September 6
The weather outside
was crazy today.
Light rain, torrential downpour, rain, overcast, sun breaks, repeat. A couple of times I could see the lake across the street.
Driving to the gym (second day in a row) I passed two joggers running down the street. I know these people are dedicated but I have to think there's something not quite right up there when you run in pouring rain. That can't be good for your health, can it.
Light rain, torrential downpour, rain, overcast, sun breaks, repeat. A couple of times I could see the lake across the street.
Driving to the gym (second day in a row) I passed two joggers running down the street. I know these people are dedicated but I have to think there's something not quite right up there when you run in pouring rain. That can't be good for your health, can it.
Thursday, January 1
College Bowl Games
Today is January 1st. For the first time in what might be my lifetime, I didn't watch a single minute of college football. I actually watched hockey (the Winter Classic) and baseball (part of Don Larsen's perfect game on the new MLB Network) instead of New Year's Day Bowls.
Which gets to a post I've been kicking around for a few weeks but never typed out about college bowls.
Point 1: I've been really undecided what to think about Vanderbilt being in a bowl. On one hand it's nice that Vanderbilt no longer appears near the top of "longest bowl drought" lists. And a six-win season is the best Vanderbilt has had in a long time so this qualifies as a great year by Vanderbilt standards. On the other hand, it's not like Vanderbilt is actually any good. After starting 5-1, they finished the regular season 6-6 which isn't exactly something to be proud of. Their offense is horrible, their defense is OK. They basically win by not making mistakes and getting some breaks. They may not even be in the top 50 this year heading into bowl season. I'd like being excited that a C and D student got one B on her report card.
Having played the game, it was a lot of fun to watch them on National TV and pull off a big upset. While the line was only 3-4 points, Boston College was a top 25 team and I think 90% of ESPN viewers picked them to win. A guy I know was in a contest where he ranked the bowl games by likelihood of winners and made BC his #1 pick.
Point 2: On the BCS, I had a long talk with Glenn about the selection process and options and we came to a couple of interesting conclusions. There's no good way to decide a three-way tie for a conference or division title when each team has lost to one of the others. And it's a bit disconcerting that who plays for a national championship comes down to the arbitrary selection of which tie breaker rules the conference happens to have in place. I can't argue against the approach utilized by other conferences to "eliminate" the #3 team then look at head-to-head and that approach would likely have put Texas in the championship game. Not sure how the conference strength of victory would have determined a winner. What's really tough is a lot of the computer polls have Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech 1-2-3 so it's very close. I suspect some weird things can happen in the Pac Ten with USC being the dominant team but coming very close to NOT winning the conference title.
What Glenn and I found very interesting is that even though this is a year where there's a good argument that the best team in the nation isn't playing for the National Championship (Texas), the BCS does a better job of ensuring that the best team IS in the championship than a playoff. Let's declare best team to mean if the top 21 teams each played each other 50 times, the team with the best record is the best team. This year is pretty extreme, but even so there's only a 35% chance the best team isn't in the game. It's hard to argue Texas being so much better than Oklahoma and Florida that it wins more than 1/3 of the time. In general, I'd say the best team is left out of the BCS Championship 20% of the time. But if you switch to a 16-team playoff or even an 8-team playoff, the best team missed out of the championship game much, much more often.
Let's be optimistic and say the #1 team has a 100% chance of beating the #16 team, and then a 90% chance of beating the #8/9 team and a 70% chance of winning in the national semifinal against the #4 or 5 team. That would give the team a 37% chance of NOT making the championship. And really it's greater than that since those win % are inflated. Rank your top 8 teams and see if you think the top team would really beat #8 9 times in 10 or #4 70% of the time.
This is the dark side of the beauty of March Madness. While it's good entertainment to see upsets and close games and 64 teams in, it's also almost a crapshoot once you get to the final 16. I believe last year was the first time ever that all 4 #1 seed made it to the Final Four. Quite simply, the more teams you involve, the LESS likely it is that you crown the best team as champion assuming the selection process isn't arbitrary.
Net net, so while I firmly believe Texas got screwed even though I think Oklahoma is better, I much prefer the current system to a 16-team playoff. I would like a 6-team playoff, though it will never happen.
Which gets to a post I've been kicking around for a few weeks but never typed out about college bowls.
Point 1: I've been really undecided what to think about Vanderbilt being in a bowl. On one hand it's nice that Vanderbilt no longer appears near the top of "longest bowl drought" lists. And a six-win season is the best Vanderbilt has had in a long time so this qualifies as a great year by Vanderbilt standards. On the other hand, it's not like Vanderbilt is actually any good. After starting 5-1, they finished the regular season 6-6 which isn't exactly something to be proud of. Their offense is horrible, their defense is OK. They basically win by not making mistakes and getting some breaks. They may not even be in the top 50 this year heading into bowl season. I'd like being excited that a C and D student got one B on her report card.
Having played the game, it was a lot of fun to watch them on National TV and pull off a big upset. While the line was only 3-4 points, Boston College was a top 25 team and I think 90% of ESPN viewers picked them to win. A guy I know was in a contest where he ranked the bowl games by likelihood of winners and made BC his #1 pick.
Point 2: On the BCS, I had a long talk with Glenn about the selection process and options and we came to a couple of interesting conclusions. There's no good way to decide a three-way tie for a conference or division title when each team has lost to one of the others. And it's a bit disconcerting that who plays for a national championship comes down to the arbitrary selection of which tie breaker rules the conference happens to have in place. I can't argue against the approach utilized by other conferences to "eliminate" the #3 team then look at head-to-head and that approach would likely have put Texas in the championship game. Not sure how the conference strength of victory would have determined a winner. What's really tough is a lot of the computer polls have Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech 1-2-3 so it's very close. I suspect some weird things can happen in the Pac Ten with USC being the dominant team but coming very close to NOT winning the conference title.
What Glenn and I found very interesting is that even though this is a year where there's a good argument that the best team in the nation isn't playing for the National Championship (Texas), the BCS does a better job of ensuring that the best team IS in the championship than a playoff. Let's declare best team to mean if the top 21 teams each played each other 50 times, the team with the best record is the best team. This year is pretty extreme, but even so there's only a 35% chance the best team isn't in the game. It's hard to argue Texas being so much better than Oklahoma and Florida that it wins more than 1/3 of the time. In general, I'd say the best team is left out of the BCS Championship 20% of the time. But if you switch to a 16-team playoff or even an 8-team playoff, the best team missed out of the championship game much, much more often.
Let's be optimistic and say the #1 team has a 100% chance of beating the #16 team, and then a 90% chance of beating the #8/9 team and a 70% chance of winning in the national semifinal against the #4 or 5 team. That would give the team a 37% chance of NOT making the championship. And really it's greater than that since those win % are inflated. Rank your top 8 teams and see if you think the top team would really beat #8 9 times in 10 or #4 70% of the time.
This is the dark side of the beauty of March Madness. While it's good entertainment to see upsets and close games and 64 teams in, it's also almost a crapshoot once you get to the final 16. I believe last year was the first time ever that all 4 #1 seed made it to the Final Four. Quite simply, the more teams you involve, the LESS likely it is that you crown the best team as champion assuming the selection process isn't arbitrary.
Net net, so while I firmly believe Texas got screwed even though I think Oklahoma is better, I much prefer the current system to a 16-team playoff. I would like a 6-team playoff, though it will never happen.
Sunday, November 23
Gas prices
In May, just six months ago, I blogged about gas crossing the $4 mark. Last week, I paid $2.41 and it looks like prices are down a few pennies since then.
That means gas prices have dropped 40% in 6 months. I sure crude oil is down, but that's an amazing price drop. Has any good dropped 20% or even 10% in the last six months (stocks aren't really goods)? My gut is everything is MORE expensive now. Seems like a fake scarcity to me.
That means gas prices have dropped 40% in 6 months. I sure crude oil is down, but that's an amazing price drop. Has any good dropped 20% or even 10% in the last six months (stocks aren't really goods)? My gut is everything is MORE expensive now. Seems like a fake scarcity to me.
Monday, October 6
Playoff FIrst Round
Yuck, yuck, and more yuck.
I'm not sure whether I'm more sad, frustrated, or embarrassed by the Cubs performance. Monica's sister and brother-in-law attended game 1 in Chicago, Monica went to game 2, and I went to LA for the weekend for game 3 (and what I expected would be game 4). What a waste of a season. And a double-whammy for me on top of the Storm's post season.
On the other hand, I had the other three series pegged right. I actually had Phillies in 4 originally, but didn't like picking them all to be four game series.
Red Sox in 7 and Phillies in 6 in the LCS.
I'm not sure whether I'm more sad, frustrated, or embarrassed by the Cubs performance. Monica's sister and brother-in-law attended game 1 in Chicago, Monica went to game 2, and I went to LA for the weekend for game 3 (and what I expected would be game 4). What a waste of a season. And a double-whammy for me on top of the Storm's post season.
On the other hand, I had the other three series pegged right. I actually had Phillies in 4 originally, but didn't like picking them all to be four game series.
Red Sox in 7 and Phillies in 6 in the LCS.
Friday, July 4
Sonics gone
...or so it seems.
It was a sad day in Seattle sports. We've known almost from day one that Clayton Bennett's plan was to move the team to OKC, whether he admits it or not. But I really thought they'd play out the lease. It was a sweet deal for the city -- they pocket the lost revenue and then some, but the local (Queen Anne) businesses that benefit from 41 Sonics home days get squat. Actually they get less than squat, they get screwed.
There's so much blame to go around, it's not funny. Bennett is obviously a snake is best described by the old joke -- how do you know when he's lying; answer: his lips move. Howard Schultz, who is a smart businessman was incredibly naive in buying the Sonics and selling to an out of town owner. A lot of people want to blame the city, but I'm of two minds here. Sure the city could have done more for the Sonics. But really spending taxpayer money to subsidize improving Key Arena for the Sonics would have been a bad move. As a whole people are against it and economic studies show it doesn't make sense. And they've already spent a bunch of money on two stadiums that have better draws. So to me, the city is stuck -- they shouldn't get a penny to the Sonics owners, but if they don't the team leaves.
The Schultz suit is still out there, but to me this is one of those suits that has a lot of merit in concept -- it's pretty clear Bennett failed to act in good faith, but in the end he won't win because a court won't reverse a sale two or three years later, after some assets have been sold and the team has moved.
I'm 90% sure Seattle will get another NBA team. The Pacific Northwest is just too large to only have one team. I'm also 90% sure it won't happen in the next 5 years.
It was a sad day in Seattle sports. We've known almost from day one that Clayton Bennett's plan was to move the team to OKC, whether he admits it or not. But I really thought they'd play out the lease. It was a sweet deal for the city -- they pocket the lost revenue and then some, but the local (Queen Anne) businesses that benefit from 41 Sonics home days get squat. Actually they get less than squat, they get screwed.
There's so much blame to go around, it's not funny. Bennett is obviously a snake is best described by the old joke -- how do you know when he's lying; answer: his lips move. Howard Schultz, who is a smart businessman was incredibly naive in buying the Sonics and selling to an out of town owner. A lot of people want to blame the city, but I'm of two minds here. Sure the city could have done more for the Sonics. But really spending taxpayer money to subsidize improving Key Arena for the Sonics would have been a bad move. As a whole people are against it and economic studies show it doesn't make sense. And they've already spent a bunch of money on two stadiums that have better draws. So to me, the city is stuck -- they shouldn't get a penny to the Sonics owners, but if they don't the team leaves.
The Schultz suit is still out there, but to me this is one of those suits that has a lot of merit in concept -- it's pretty clear Bennett failed to act in good faith, but in the end he won't win because a court won't reverse a sale two or three years later, after some assets have been sold and the team has moved.
I'm 90% sure Seattle will get another NBA team. The Pacific Northwest is just too large to only have one team. I'm also 90% sure it won't happen in the next 5 years.
Tuesday, June 17
Why I Don't Watch the NBA
or at least don't watch very much.
Tim Donaghy levels some pretty serious allegations at the league about influencing the outcome of games. Donaghy isn't exactly what we'd consider a fine, upstanding citizen and obviously we should believe this just because he says it's true. However one of three things are true:
We ALL know there different rules for superstars in the NBA. The Piston's "Jordan Rules" was always a double-entendre. Even if the league won't admit it, every TV commentator talks openly about it. The stars get protected -- the fans pay big $ to see them play or watch them on TV and really it's good for the league -- though it's clearly dishonest officiating.
Do I think the NBA is fixed -- predetermined like "pro wrestling"? No. But as far back as the year Jordan retired and the Bulls couldn't get a call, I've wondered if the officiating was totally on the up and up. It's ten+ years and I don't remember the plays, but I remember feeling the Bulls got jobbed. Maybe it's just as subtle as the selection of officials for the game or points of emphasis. Let's say the NBA didn't want the Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz to advance in a playoff series because Salt Lake City is a small city. By assigning referees who call lots of moving screens and let the defense get away with bumping and holding on the pick and roll, they can call the game "fairly" while putting the Jazz at a disadvantage.
I've watched most of the Magic games when I was visiting family in Orlando. And I've checked scores as I've passed by a TV. The one time I actually watched was the last minute of the LA-San Antonio game which solidified my view. It was the game when the San Antonio player was tackled with 1 second to go and prevented from shooting a game-winning or game-tying shot. When many inside and outside the game played it off as "you can't blow the whistle there" or "referees shouldn't decide the game' (ironic) , I wonder how you can honestly let the defense prevent a player from taking a shot.
Did anyone think the Celtics were going to win game 5 yesterday? It may be said half in jest, but with all the hype would the NBA let this be a 5-game series!?!
Tim Donaghy levels some pretty serious allegations at the league about influencing the outcome of games. Donaghy isn't exactly what we'd consider a fine, upstanding citizen and obviously we should believe this just because he says it's true. However one of three things are true:
- Donaghy's statements are 90% truth. Maybe he doesn't remember details exactly or maybe he exaggerated a bit.
- There's some basis to what he says -- some conversations between the league and the officials on how to call specific games, some things he was told though perhaps misunderstood -- but the specific examples are made up or speculation.
- Donaghy made the whole thing up.
We ALL know there different rules for superstars in the NBA. The Piston's "Jordan Rules" was always a double-entendre. Even if the league won't admit it, every TV commentator talks openly about it. The stars get protected -- the fans pay big $ to see them play or watch them on TV and really it's good for the league -- though it's clearly dishonest officiating.
Do I think the NBA is fixed -- predetermined like "pro wrestling"? No. But as far back as the year Jordan retired and the Bulls couldn't get a call, I've wondered if the officiating was totally on the up and up. It's ten+ years and I don't remember the plays, but I remember feeling the Bulls got jobbed. Maybe it's just as subtle as the selection of officials for the game or points of emphasis. Let's say the NBA didn't want the Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz to advance in a playoff series because Salt Lake City is a small city. By assigning referees who call lots of moving screens and let the defense get away with bumping and holding on the pick and roll, they can call the game "fairly" while putting the Jazz at a disadvantage.
I've watched most of the Magic games when I was visiting family in Orlando. And I've checked scores as I've passed by a TV. The one time I actually watched was the last minute of the LA-San Antonio game which solidified my view. It was the game when the San Antonio player was tackled with 1 second to go and prevented from shooting a game-winning or game-tying shot. When many inside and outside the game played it off as "you can't blow the whistle there" or "referees shouldn't decide the game' (ironic) , I wonder how you can honestly let the defense prevent a player from taking a shot.
Did anyone think the Celtics were going to win game 5 yesterday? It may be said half in jest, but with all the hype would the NBA let this be a 5-game series!?!
Monday, May 26
The $4 barrier
It finally happened that I paid $4/gallon for REGULAR gas. I've been over $4/gallon for premium for a while, but had to fill up the car that takes the "cheap gas" today. It doesn't seem like that long ago we broke the $2 threshold.
That said I think higher gas prices are a good thing. While I hate to see the price of any consumable go up -- higher gas prices cost Monica and I around $1000/year which is not chump change -- my hope is that we hit the pain threshold where people change their driving behaviors.
At some point people get out of their cars and take public transit to work, move or change jobs closer to home, run fewer errands or consolidate them, or do lots of things to get cars off the road. And cars off the road and less dependence on oil is a good thing.
It's always amazing to see how a pseudo holiday reduces traffic to a non-factor. On Friday, the Friday before a three-day weekend, I hit almost no traffic going to work leaving at a time where I'd normally drive 20 MPH much of the way. If we could permanently reduce the number of cars on the road (in the Seattle area) by just 10-15%, we'd go back to rush hour and not rush hours from 7-10 and 3-7. And no one would complain about that.
That said I think higher gas prices are a good thing. While I hate to see the price of any consumable go up -- higher gas prices cost Monica and I around $1000/year which is not chump change -- my hope is that we hit the pain threshold where people change their driving behaviors.
At some point people get out of their cars and take public transit to work, move or change jobs closer to home, run fewer errands or consolidate them, or do lots of things to get cars off the road. And cars off the road and less dependence on oil is a good thing.
It's always amazing to see how a pseudo holiday reduces traffic to a non-factor. On Friday, the Friday before a three-day weekend, I hit almost no traffic going to work leaving at a time where I'd normally drive 20 MPH much of the way. If we could permanently reduce the number of cars on the road (in the Seattle area) by just 10-15%, we'd go back to rush hour and not rush hours from 7-10 and 3-7. And no one would complain about that.
Wednesday, April 23
Taking Responsibility
Yesterday I left voice messages for five different people, two left for businesses before 9 AM. In three cases I was doing someone the courtesy of responding to their message or email and in three cases I was calling a cell phone (two overlapped) where I'd think I'd be able to reach someone in the first place. Just about every call required a two-minute discussion.
None of the people called me back yesterday though one did just email me back this AM -- to say he found other Mariners tickets. Now I don't expect people to drop everything when I call or they get a voice mail from me. But each of my calls had some sense of time sensitivity, in some cases for the callee. Have people lost common courtesy. Do people not take responsibility anymore for communication? Are we all too busy surfing the Internet to have a human conversation?
I admit some of the pot calling the kettle black, but my frustration is the underlying sense that three days from now I'll still be waiting for responses.
None of the people called me back yesterday though one did just email me back this AM -- to say he found other Mariners tickets. Now I don't expect people to drop everything when I call or they get a voice mail from me. But each of my calls had some sense of time sensitivity, in some cases for the callee. Have people lost common courtesy. Do people not take responsibility anymore for communication? Are we all too busy surfing the Internet to have a human conversation?
I admit some of the pot calling the kettle black, but my frustration is the underlying sense that three days from now I'll still be waiting for responses.
Saturday, April 12
Amazon.com strange shipping
For Monica's birthday I ordered her two CDs from Amazon.com. I ordered them at the same time and they're both by the same artist. This seems like the kind of user behavior that happens a thousand times a day, though the artist wasn't mainstream.
Here's what we got:
The package on the right was shipped first from Illinois and arrived this morning. The one on the right was shipping a day later from California and arrived yesterday afternoon.
And of course the packaging is very different. Somehow this doesn't seem like the most efficient way to do this, either for Amazon or for me.
The good news is despite their prediction of an April 14th delivery, BOTH CDs made it her for her birthday.
Here's what we got:
The package on the right was shipped first from Illinois and arrived this morning. The one on the right was shipping a day later from California and arrived yesterday afternoon.
And of course the packaging is very different. Somehow this doesn't seem like the most efficient way to do this, either for Amazon or for me.
The good news is despite their prediction of an April 14th delivery, BOTH CDs made it her for her birthday.
Monday, September 10
Cubs
<sigh>
Baseball Prospectus runs a daily Post Season Odds report. The math and process isn't that important but the end result gives you a good idea of a team's chances of making the playoffs. Since shortly after the all-star break, the Cubs have had a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs even breaking 60% a few times as recently as August 31st. With yesterday's loss and the Brewers win, not only did the Cubs drop out of first place but their post season chances feel to 36%, the lowest it's been since July 1.
Of more concern the Cubs have been playing some pretty bad baseball for a while now. Since peaking on July 30th, they're 17-22 and have been outscored 156-188. The starting pitching has been lousy, especially Zambrano and Hill who are supposed to be the aces of the staff. But they haven't helped themselves by replacing Sean Marshall with Steve Tracshel -- on what universe is that an upgrade -- or penciling in Jason Kendall's no hit, no field name into the top of the lineup. Kendall may be the worst player in major league baseball. Geovany Soto hit .353 with 31 2B and 26 HR in only 385 AB in AAA this year. Even the non-baseball fans reading this blog know that's pretty good. He's not the catcher of the future, he's by far the best catcher the Cubs have now. Play him!
Edited to add: Who says "they" can't hear you through the TV set? I made the post above and turned on the Cub game just as Derrek Lee hit a home run. The Cubs added four more runs and now lead 6-1.
Baseball Prospectus runs a daily Post Season Odds report. The math and process isn't that important but the end result gives you a good idea of a team's chances of making the playoffs. Since shortly after the all-star break, the Cubs have had a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs even breaking 60% a few times as recently as August 31st. With yesterday's loss and the Brewers win, not only did the Cubs drop out of first place but their post season chances feel to 36%, the lowest it's been since July 1.
Of more concern the Cubs have been playing some pretty bad baseball for a while now. Since peaking on July 30th, they're 17-22 and have been outscored 156-188. The starting pitching has been lousy, especially Zambrano and Hill who are supposed to be the aces of the staff. But they haven't helped themselves by replacing Sean Marshall with Steve Tracshel -- on what universe is that an upgrade -- or penciling in Jason Kendall's no hit, no field name into the top of the lineup. Kendall may be the worst player in major league baseball. Geovany Soto hit .353 with 31 2B and 26 HR in only 385 AB in AAA this year. Even the non-baseball fans reading this blog know that's pretty good. He's not the catcher of the future, he's by far the best catcher the Cubs have now. Play him!
Edited to add: Who says "they" can't hear you through the TV set? I made the post above and turned on the Cub game just as Derrek Lee hit a home run. The Cubs added four more runs and now lead 6-1.
Friday, September 7
Stein
It never ceases to amaze me that people can't pronounce or spell "Stein". I had both happen in the past couple of days. The local grocery store has a policy of thanking customers by name, which I'm OK with, but it's almost insulting when they pronounce it wrong which happens about one in four times. I realize my name isn't as common as Jones, Smith, Johnson, or Suzuki. And it does violate the "i before e..." rule.
However, stein is a word that's been part of the English language for 100 years. And there's a fairly famous scientist named Einstein, spelled and pronounced the same way.
No one pronounces the President's name as if it rhymes with "hush".
Bregel is hard, Aristodemo is pretty tricky, Kline and Klein are both common, Saltalamacchia and Yastrzemski are tongue twisters. But Stein should be easy for anyone old enough to order a beer.
However, stein is a word that's been part of the English language for 100 years. And there's a fairly famous scientist named Einstein, spelled and pronounced the same way.
No one pronounces the President's name as if it rhymes with "hush".
Bregel is hard, Aristodemo is pretty tricky, Kline and Klein are both common, Saltalamacchia and Yastrzemski are tongue twisters. But Stein should be easy for anyone old enough to order a beer.
Friday, May 18
Veronica Mars cancelled
Not a surprise, but it's sad to see one of the few good shows on television go away. The season finale, which will technically be a series finale, is a two hour episode next Tuesday.
What is sad is that they couldn't make this decision two months ago when they were still writing/filming so that season 3 could lead to a true series finale that wraps up loose ends. While I believe those involved with the show knew in their heads that season 4 wasn't likely, it sounds like the season finale sets up things for season 4 rather than wrapping up the series.
While the poor ratings make the cancellation somewhat an obvious choice, there's a greater decision by CW what the network wants to stand for and what business plan it has. In the short run, it's all about ratings which convert to advertising dollars. But putting a bunch of trash on television (quick, name a show on CW other than Everybody Hates Chris), especially reality TV with cheap stunts, may give them a ratings boost short term, but in the long run they have inferior knock offs of shows the big 4 networks are doing and those fail. Remember all of the attempts to copy "Friends"; actually you probably don't remember them but there was one on the fall schedule every yea. CW has no "theme" or style other than we show the crap that CBS is too good to show. Despite its stuggles, UPN always had shows that appealed to the black crowd and could market to that demographic. CW used to have young, hip family dramas (with cult followings) but it's killed all of them.
My prediction: in six months, CW is consistently the sixth-highest rated network, is scrambling for mid-season replacements and Dawn Ostroff's job is in real jeopardy.
Other's comments and blogs:
Chicago Tribune
What is sad is that they couldn't make this decision two months ago when they were still writing/filming so that season 3 could lead to a true series finale that wraps up loose ends. While I believe those involved with the show knew in their heads that season 4 wasn't likely, it sounds like the season finale sets up things for season 4 rather than wrapping up the series.
While the poor ratings make the cancellation somewhat an obvious choice, there's a greater decision by CW what the network wants to stand for and what business plan it has. In the short run, it's all about ratings which convert to advertising dollars. But putting a bunch of trash on television (quick, name a show on CW other than Everybody Hates Chris), especially reality TV with cheap stunts, may give them a ratings boost short term, but in the long run they have inferior knock offs of shows the big 4 networks are doing and those fail. Remember all of the attempts to copy "Friends"; actually you probably don't remember them but there was one on the fall schedule every yea. CW has no "theme" or style other than we show the crap that CBS is too good to show. Despite its stuggles, UPN always had shows that appealed to the black crowd and could market to that demographic. CW used to have young, hip family dramas (with cult followings) but it's killed all of them.
My prediction: in six months, CW is consistently the sixth-highest rated network, is scrambling for mid-season replacements and Dawn Ostroff's job is in real jeopardy.
Other's comments and blogs:
Chicago Tribune
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