Anyone who's watched college basketball over the past few years has noticed that games are generally close. There are lots of upset every year, even with top 5 teams against unranked opponents. Cornell, an Ivy league school, played then #1 Kansas close and lost by only five points.
Vanderbilt just beat South Carolina by 10 points on the road. Any road win in the SEC is an accomplishment, and a double digit road win is doubly impressive. However I wondered whether South Carolina was just really bad, Vanderbilt was good, or Vanderbilt just played well. And this is interesting.
I checked the "Vegas lines" and Vanderbilt was a 1 point favorite, so winning easily is a great. Then I checked Sagrain ratings to get a computerized view of what they've done so far. Vanderbilt is #21 and South Carolina is #73 so at first it looks like Vanderbilt should win easily and the line is "off". However a close look shows Vanderbilt's rating is only 4.5 point more than South Carolina's. Give South Carolina 4 points for being home, and the "Sagarin line" is Vanderbilt by 1/2 point! That's right a top 25 team plays a team not in the top 70 -- a team hoping for a NIT berth -- and the game is a toss up.
There are some good teams at the top, but the difference between #10 and #100 is just 12 points. The difference between #10, what some might call an elite team and #50, a team on the NCAA tournament bubble is 6 points. And if the #50 team is at home, the difference is 2 points, essentially a toss up.
In the ACC, the difference between the second best team and the worst (12th) team is 8 points. 2nd to 7th are separated by 3 points. That's going to be a wild conference and a wilder tournament. In the Big East, the top 12 teams are separated by 10 points. It's not quite a crapshoot, but most conference games are 60-40 propositions even if there's a big spread in rankings.
It's a good year to bet on middle seeds making a run in the NCAA tournament.
Saturday, January 16
Monday, January 11
Vegas poker trip
Went to Vegas for a few days right before New Year's. It's a great place to play because there are more good poker rooms in a two mile stretch than there are in all of Washington and Oregon combined. Had a couple of huge cashes, mainly at the Venetian and Planet Hollywood and came out enough ahead that the trip was free. Of course staying three nights for $89 total makes that pretty easy.
I played so much poker in three days that I really can't talk about interesting hands or sessions. Independent of the cash result, it was a lot of fun to live on the wild side. Cuz I'm kinda a simple boring guy :)
I'll be heading back in March and it looks like July as well.
I played so much poker in three days that I really can't talk about interesting hands or sessions. Independent of the cash result, it was a lot of fun to live on the wild side. Cuz I'm kinda a simple boring guy :)
I'll be heading back in March and it looks like July as well.
Sunday, December 20
Seahawks and Mora
I'm a firm believer that you need to give a coach a chance to build a team. But at some point there has to be a level of play where you conclude you have a PURE (previously undiscovered recruiting error) as a coach and should let him go.
Before the season, the Seahawks were talking playoffs. Obviously the absence of Walter Jones has hurt them. But this team has been terrible. They're 5-9 and just lost to a Tampa Bay team that hadn't scored a touchdown since November and might be the worst team in the league. Three of their five wins are against St Louis and Detroit. You could argue that the game against Jacksonville is the only time they've played well all year. Somehow when the team seems to underachieve every week and gets worse as the season goes on, you have to blame coaching.
I'd fire Mora. It's not all his fault, but it's hard to believe a good coach could get such a terrible effort out of this team.
Before the season, the Seahawks were talking playoffs. Obviously the absence of Walter Jones has hurt them. But this team has been terrible. They're 5-9 and just lost to a Tampa Bay team that hadn't scored a touchdown since November and might be the worst team in the league. Three of their five wins are against St Louis and Detroit. You could argue that the game against Jacksonville is the only time they've played well all year. Somehow when the team seems to underachieve every week and gets worse as the season goes on, you have to blame coaching.
I'd fire Mora. It's not all his fault, but it's hard to believe a good coach could get such a terrible effort out of this team.
Poker update
It's not that I haven't been blogging, I actually haven't played much poker since my last post. With the holidays, evenings have been spent shopping, wrapping, packaging, lighting candles, etc. And then I had a major "non-playing" disappointment.
I played at Snoqualmie a couple of weeks ago and nearly tripled up by buy in. One of my best results of late. Basically had two big hands where I hit sets and got paid. One I erred by calling too much pre flop -- but I just didn't believe the guy -- but the other I played well calling down what was essentially a three barrel bluff on an all-club flop. Also had a simple hand where four people limp called my raise to 25 and a flopped top pair and took down the pot. I wish I could have more hands that were so easy.
We spent the weekend at Tulalip for my birthday so I could get a lot of poker in. Unfortunately it didn't work out well. Monica wanted to go shopping after dinner so I accompanied her and didn't get into a game until after 9 PM. It had been a long day and I just wasn't feeling it. Though it was a great table with really bad players. I also liked that their 3-5 game allows a $500 buy in which means more money on the table. Wound up winning a little bit almost all of it on one hand where a guy "donated" $300 with trips, no-kicker against my tips-ace kicker when his hand HAD to be no good on the turn.
Hope to get in a session this week, likely Friday if not before, before I head to Las Vegas next Monday.
I played at Snoqualmie a couple of weeks ago and nearly tripled up by buy in. One of my best results of late. Basically had two big hands where I hit sets and got paid. One I erred by calling too much pre flop -- but I just didn't believe the guy -- but the other I played well calling down what was essentially a three barrel bluff on an all-club flop. Also had a simple hand where four people limp called my raise to 25 and a flopped top pair and took down the pot. I wish I could have more hands that were so easy.
We spent the weekend at Tulalip for my birthday so I could get a lot of poker in. Unfortunately it didn't work out well. Monica wanted to go shopping after dinner so I accompanied her and didn't get into a game until after 9 PM. It had been a long day and I just wasn't feeling it. Though it was a great table with really bad players. I also liked that their 3-5 game allows a $500 buy in which means more money on the table. Wound up winning a little bit almost all of it on one hand where a guy "donated" $300 with trips, no-kicker against my tips-ace kicker when his hand HAD to be no good on the turn.
Hope to get in a session this week, likely Friday if not before, before I head to Las Vegas next Monday.
Saturday, November 28
Poker this week
I'm trying blogging from my phone. Good week of poker. Came out ahead on cash game Tuesday. Won a home game tournament Friday and cashed in the Snoqualmie tournament today.
Hmm, apparently blogging via phone doesn't create a title. Scratch that and stick to Twitter and Facebook via phone/text.
Session on Tuesday was good. I nearly doubled up early with KK vs AK with all money in pre-flop. He really thought he was racing when I four-bet!?! Played a couple more hours and gave some back. Some friends held a home game Friday night. Well, I wish it was Friday night. We were supposed to start at 9:30 but actually started at 11 (!). Without much structure and organization we kept the starting blinds for at least 90 minutes. Good news was that I chopped the prize pool with another player at 2AM though I had a small chip lead.
Today I probably played the best tournament poker I've played in a long time. I had one bad read, but basically made hands, put pressure on other people, and kept winning pots. By the time we got to the final table everyone was micro-stacking (about 2-5 BB) and the determining factors were draw for seats, getting lucky with cards, then chips, and last a touch of skill. I did poorly on the first one and wound up 8th. So I cashed twice in one day. Not sure I've ever done that.
Hmm, apparently blogging via phone doesn't create a title. Scratch that and stick to Twitter and Facebook via phone/text.
Session on Tuesday was good. I nearly doubled up early with KK vs AK with all money in pre-flop. He really thought he was racing when I four-bet!?! Played a couple more hours and gave some back. Some friends held a home game Friday night. Well, I wish it was Friday night. We were supposed to start at 9:30 but actually started at 11 (!). Without much structure and organization we kept the starting blinds for at least 90 minutes. Good news was that I chopped the prize pool with another player at 2AM though I had a small chip lead.
Today I probably played the best tournament poker I've played in a long time. I had one bad read, but basically made hands, put pressure on other people, and kept winning pots. By the time we got to the final table everyone was micro-stacking (about 2-5 BB) and the determining factors were draw for seats, getting lucky with cards, then chips, and last a touch of skill. I did poorly on the first one and wound up 8th. So I cashed twice in one day. Not sure I've ever done that.
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