Five Thirty-Eight

This may be the most fascinating site on the Internet right now.

Nate Silver is well-known for his work with Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA and now he's build a projection system not a prediction system for elections. This should be must read for every American at least once per week.

Before the Democratic convention, 538 projected an even race with a slight edge to Obama in electoral votes, popular vote, and likelihood of winning. Now it shows a big lead for the Democrats. That said polls are a bit of a trailing indicator and there aren't any polls that fully reflect the Republican convention. The projections attempt to adjust for that however. Have to read the latest blog posts to see where Obama has been gaining.