Monday, September 8
Thursday, September 4
Five Thirty-Eight
This may be the most fascinating site on the Internet right now.
Nate Silver is well-known for his work with Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA and now he's build a projection system not a prediction system for elections. This should be must read for every American at least once per week.
Before the Democratic convention, 538 projected an even race with a slight edge to Obama in electoral votes, popular vote, and likelihood of winning. Now it shows a big lead for the Democrats. That said polls are a bit of a trailing indicator and there aren't any polls that fully reflect the Republican convention. The projections attempt to adjust for that however. Have to read the latest blog posts to see where Obama has been gaining.
Nate Silver is well-known for his work with Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA and now he's build a projection system not a prediction system for elections. This should be must read for every American at least once per week.
Before the Democratic convention, 538 projected an even race with a slight edge to Obama in electoral votes, popular vote, and likelihood of winning. Now it shows a big lead for the Democrats. That said polls are a bit of a trailing indicator and there aren't any polls that fully reflect the Republican convention. The projections attempt to adjust for that however. Have to read the latest blog posts to see where Obama has been gaining.
Saturday, July 12
Spread Limit Poker
When I started this blog, I thought I'd post a lot about poker. But it turns out when I'm playing I don't have time to post and when I'm not playing there's nothing to post.
I played 2-40 spread limit at Club Hollywood in Shoreline today. Washington doesn't allow true no limit poker (yet) and non-tribal casinos have a $40 maximum bet, so 2-40 spread is as close to no limit as you can get without driving an hour. I took a horrible beat early (I my opponent all-in on the flop with AQ on a Q-Q-4 board against 66 and he rivered a 6 for those who play poker) but sill finished a two hour session up $60. I believe this is the most beatable and profitable game in the area (Omaha/8 is pretty good too). It's still a small sample size, but in 7 sessions for a total of 26 hours, I'm averaging a profit of $27/hour and have only one losing session. I think the key thing is that people don't understand implied odds for what's sort of a no limit game. And there are just some people there to gamble.
I played 2-40 spread limit at Club Hollywood in Shoreline today. Washington doesn't allow true no limit poker (yet) and non-tribal casinos have a $40 maximum bet, so 2-40 spread is as close to no limit as you can get without driving an hour. I took a horrible beat early (I my opponent all-in on the flop with AQ on a Q-Q-4 board against 66 and he rivered a 6 for those who play poker) but sill finished a two hour session up $60. I believe this is the most beatable and profitable game in the area (Omaha/8 is pretty good too). It's still a small sample size, but in 7 sessions for a total of 26 hours, I'm averaging a profit of $27/hour and have only one losing session. I think the key thing is that people don't understand implied odds for what's sort of a no limit game. And there are just some people there to gamble.
Friday, July 4
Sonics gone
...or so it seems.
It was a sad day in Seattle sports. We've known almost from day one that Clayton Bennett's plan was to move the team to OKC, whether he admits it or not. But I really thought they'd play out the lease. It was a sweet deal for the city -- they pocket the lost revenue and then some, but the local (Queen Anne) businesses that benefit from 41 Sonics home days get squat. Actually they get less than squat, they get screwed.
There's so much blame to go around, it's not funny. Bennett is obviously a snake is best described by the old joke -- how do you know when he's lying; answer: his lips move. Howard Schultz, who is a smart businessman was incredibly naive in buying the Sonics and selling to an out of town owner. A lot of people want to blame the city, but I'm of two minds here. Sure the city could have done more for the Sonics. But really spending taxpayer money to subsidize improving Key Arena for the Sonics would have been a bad move. As a whole people are against it and economic studies show it doesn't make sense. And they've already spent a bunch of money on two stadiums that have better draws. So to me, the city is stuck -- they shouldn't get a penny to the Sonics owners, but if they don't the team leaves.
The Schultz suit is still out there, but to me this is one of those suits that has a lot of merit in concept -- it's pretty clear Bennett failed to act in good faith, but in the end he won't win because a court won't reverse a sale two or three years later, after some assets have been sold and the team has moved.
I'm 90% sure Seattle will get another NBA team. The Pacific Northwest is just too large to only have one team. I'm also 90% sure it won't happen in the next 5 years.
It was a sad day in Seattle sports. We've known almost from day one that Clayton Bennett's plan was to move the team to OKC, whether he admits it or not. But I really thought they'd play out the lease. It was a sweet deal for the city -- they pocket the lost revenue and then some, but the local (Queen Anne) businesses that benefit from 41 Sonics home days get squat. Actually they get less than squat, they get screwed.
There's so much blame to go around, it's not funny. Bennett is obviously a snake is best described by the old joke -- how do you know when he's lying; answer: his lips move. Howard Schultz, who is a smart businessman was incredibly naive in buying the Sonics and selling to an out of town owner. A lot of people want to blame the city, but I'm of two minds here. Sure the city could have done more for the Sonics. But really spending taxpayer money to subsidize improving Key Arena for the Sonics would have been a bad move. As a whole people are against it and economic studies show it doesn't make sense. And they've already spent a bunch of money on two stadiums that have better draws. So to me, the city is stuck -- they shouldn't get a penny to the Sonics owners, but if they don't the team leaves.
The Schultz suit is still out there, but to me this is one of those suits that has a lot of merit in concept -- it's pretty clear Bennett failed to act in good faith, but in the end he won't win because a court won't reverse a sale two or three years later, after some assets have been sold and the team has moved.
I'm 90% sure Seattle will get another NBA team. The Pacific Northwest is just too large to only have one team. I'm also 90% sure it won't happen in the next 5 years.
Tuesday, June 17
Why I Don't Watch the NBA
or at least don't watch very much.
Tim Donaghy levels some pretty serious allegations at the league about influencing the outcome of games. Donaghy isn't exactly what we'd consider a fine, upstanding citizen and obviously we should believe this just because he says it's true. However one of three things are true:
We ALL know there different rules for superstars in the NBA. The Piston's "Jordan Rules" was always a double-entendre. Even if the league won't admit it, every TV commentator talks openly about it. The stars get protected -- the fans pay big $ to see them play or watch them on TV and really it's good for the league -- though it's clearly dishonest officiating.
Do I think the NBA is fixed -- predetermined like "pro wrestling"? No. But as far back as the year Jordan retired and the Bulls couldn't get a call, I've wondered if the officiating was totally on the up and up. It's ten+ years and I don't remember the plays, but I remember feeling the Bulls got jobbed. Maybe it's just as subtle as the selection of officials for the game or points of emphasis. Let's say the NBA didn't want the Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz to advance in a playoff series because Salt Lake City is a small city. By assigning referees who call lots of moving screens and let the defense get away with bumping and holding on the pick and roll, they can call the game "fairly" while putting the Jazz at a disadvantage.
I've watched most of the Magic games when I was visiting family in Orlando. And I've checked scores as I've passed by a TV. The one time I actually watched was the last minute of the LA-San Antonio game which solidified my view. It was the game when the San Antonio player was tackled with 1 second to go and prevented from shooting a game-winning or game-tying shot. When many inside and outside the game played it off as "you can't blow the whistle there" or "referees shouldn't decide the game' (ironic) , I wonder how you can honestly let the defense prevent a player from taking a shot.
Did anyone think the Celtics were going to win game 5 yesterday? It may be said half in jest, but with all the hype would the NBA let this be a 5-game series!?!
Tim Donaghy levels some pretty serious allegations at the league about influencing the outcome of games. Donaghy isn't exactly what we'd consider a fine, upstanding citizen and obviously we should believe this just because he says it's true. However one of three things are true:
- Donaghy's statements are 90% truth. Maybe he doesn't remember details exactly or maybe he exaggerated a bit.
- There's some basis to what he says -- some conversations between the league and the officials on how to call specific games, some things he was told though perhaps misunderstood -- but the specific examples are made up or speculation.
- Donaghy made the whole thing up.
We ALL know there different rules for superstars in the NBA. The Piston's "Jordan Rules" was always a double-entendre. Even if the league won't admit it, every TV commentator talks openly about it. The stars get protected -- the fans pay big $ to see them play or watch them on TV and really it's good for the league -- though it's clearly dishonest officiating.
Do I think the NBA is fixed -- predetermined like "pro wrestling"? No. But as far back as the year Jordan retired and the Bulls couldn't get a call, I've wondered if the officiating was totally on the up and up. It's ten+ years and I don't remember the plays, but I remember feeling the Bulls got jobbed. Maybe it's just as subtle as the selection of officials for the game or points of emphasis. Let's say the NBA didn't want the Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz to advance in a playoff series because Salt Lake City is a small city. By assigning referees who call lots of moving screens and let the defense get away with bumping and holding on the pick and roll, they can call the game "fairly" while putting the Jazz at a disadvantage.
I've watched most of the Magic games when I was visiting family in Orlando. And I've checked scores as I've passed by a TV. The one time I actually watched was the last minute of the LA-San Antonio game which solidified my view. It was the game when the San Antonio player was tackled with 1 second to go and prevented from shooting a game-winning or game-tying shot. When many inside and outside the game played it off as "you can't blow the whistle there" or "referees shouldn't decide the game' (ironic) , I wonder how you can honestly let the defense prevent a player from taking a shot.
Did anyone think the Celtics were going to win game 5 yesterday? It may be said half in jest, but with all the hype would the NBA let this be a 5-game series!?!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
