We miss you lots sweetie. Thanks for sending the snow.
Wednesday, February 28
Happy Birthday Emily
If Emily were still with us, she'd be 11 today. Or maybe she'd be 10; she never did talk about her age.
We miss you lots sweetie. Thanks for sending the snow.
We miss you lots sweetie. Thanks for sending the snow.
Veronica Mars
I hit the nail on the head with the killer and basically with the details. I've unhidden my analsys/prediction in the previous post. Of course there were some key reveals in the final episode so being unspoiled I didn't have everything figured out.
Veronica Mars returns May 1. What will I do for the next two months on Tuesday nights?!?
Veronica Mars returns May 1. What will I do for the next two months on Tuesday nights?!?
Wednesday, February 21
Veronica Mars: Dean O'Dell's killer
My theory is below, but it's white text on white background so you won't see it until after Tuesday's show It's now after Tuesday. I'm unspoiled, meaning I don't have any inside info though I have seen the previews for next week as well as reading the summary that shows up in TV guides and similar places.
The killer is Tim Foyle. Here's why:
Flow of the show/plot. Finding Mercer, getting him off, and finding he was actually the rapist was a neat twist. But the general M.O. has been to have red herring after red herring only for the criminal to be discovered out of the blue in the last or next-to-last episode. However, the character has been involved as a second tier character throughout the arc. And the key suspects, Mindy O'Dell and Professor Landry in this case, turn out to be possible answers but not guilty in the end. And the guilty party seems like a normal guy but we've gotten a taste of his evil side. Remember the scene where Tim confronts Bonnie at the frat party and flies off the handle. As well, Tim is in the final episode and is breaking into Mars Investigations. Of course, just because they've gone this route before doesn't mean they have to do it again.
Motive. Jealousy/revenge/inferiority complex. On a side, this is where I think Landry falls short. He's already humiliated the dean, why does he want/have to kill him? Tim is pissed that he's no longer Landry's teacher's pet and has been replaced by Veronica. Veronica has also become the dean's buddy. I suspect he saw Veronica's FBI internship application with Landry and the dean's glowing recommendations. He wants to prove he can pull off a crime which shows his true brilliance. Or perhaps his anger at the dean for calling Veronica "the brightest ever" inspires him to kill the dean. He also wants to get Landry, thus framing him for the murder. He already ratted out Landry's affair. And perhaps there's something more we don't know about related to why Tim doesn't like the dean. Or maybe he just figures the dean has so many enemies that they'd never think of Tim.
Details: I can't be coincidence that the fake suicide note is verbatim what Veronica wrote in her perfect murder paper. That makes people likely to have seen the paper the most likely suspects -- Landry, Tim, possibly Mindy. And if Landry and Mindy didn't do it, Tim did. It's also possible someone else saw Veronica's paper, but who and how? I don't believe it actually was posted on the Internet. He's added a twist to make it look like Landry did it and is framing Mindy's ex for it. Landry is too bright to dispose of his clothes where they'd eventually be found. He would have buried or burned them. I have no idea how/why Steve's fingerprints were on the keyboard in the dean's office. Did anyone check WHICH keys they were on? Maybe he and Tim were in on it together? Anyway, I don't have every bit figured out, but I'd be stunned if Tim wasn't behind the murder.
The killer is Tim Foyle. Here's why:
Flow of the show/plot. Finding Mercer, getting him off, and finding he was actually the rapist was a neat twist. But the general M.O. has been to have red herring after red herring only for the criminal to be discovered out of the blue in the last or next-to-last episode. However, the character has been involved as a second tier character throughout the arc. And the key suspects, Mindy O'Dell and Professor Landry in this case, turn out to be possible answers but not guilty in the end. And the guilty party seems like a normal guy but we've gotten a taste of his evil side. Remember the scene where Tim confronts Bonnie at the frat party and flies off the handle. As well, Tim is in the final episode and is breaking into Mars Investigations. Of course, just because they've gone this route before doesn't mean they have to do it again.
Motive. Jealousy/revenge/inferiority complex. On a side, this is where I think Landry falls short. He's already humiliated the dean, why does he want/have to kill him? Tim is pissed that he's no longer Landry's teacher's pet and has been replaced by Veronica. Veronica has also become the dean's buddy. I suspect he saw Veronica's FBI internship application with Landry and the dean's glowing recommendations. He wants to prove he can pull off a crime which shows his true brilliance. Or perhaps his anger at the dean for calling Veronica "the brightest ever" inspires him to kill the dean. He also wants to get Landry, thus framing him for the murder. He already ratted out Landry's affair. And perhaps there's something more we don't know about related to why Tim doesn't like the dean. Or maybe he just figures the dean has so many enemies that they'd never think of Tim.
Details: I can't be coincidence that the fake suicide note is verbatim what Veronica wrote in her perfect murder paper. That makes people likely to have seen the paper the most likely suspects -- Landry, Tim, possibly Mindy. And if Landry and Mindy didn't do it, Tim did. It's also possible someone else saw Veronica's paper, but who and how? I don't believe it actually was posted on the Internet. He's added a twist to make it look like Landry did it and is framing Mindy's ex for it. Landry is too bright to dispose of his clothes where they'd eventually be found. He would have buried or burned them. I have no idea how/why Steve's fingerprints were on the keyboard in the dean's office. Did anyone check WHICH keys they were on? Maybe he and Tim were in on it together? Anyway, I don't have every bit figured out, but I'd be stunned if Tim wasn't behind the murder.
Tuesday, February 20
We're #1
Continuing where the last post left off, and no, I'm not a drunken idiot who thinks his team is #1 beacuse it beat #1.
Vanderbilt's baseball team moved up to #1 in the college baseball poll this week. This is the first time Vanderbilt has been ranked #1 in a major college sport in 14 years. Sorry, women's golf doesn't count.
Go Dores!
Vanderbilt's baseball team moved up to #1 in the college baseball poll this week. This is the first time Vanderbilt has been ranked #1 in a major college sport in 14 years. Sorry, women's golf doesn't count.
Go Dores!
Monday, February 19
Vanderbilt basketball stuns #1 Florida
Had to post on this -- 83-70 on Saturday. It was front page news on ESPN.com for much of the weekend.
Vanderbilt hasn't been a basketball power in my lifetime. A season that ends with an NIT appearance is often a big deal. But not too long ago they used to be a force to be reckoned with at home, even when it wasn't a good year. Memorial Gym is the only one in the nation with the benches on the ends, not the sides and the student section is next to the court which creates a large home court edge. They had a series of upsets of top 5 teams in the 80s and early 90s and typically had only one or two home losses each season. But in the past 10 years, the program has really been down. In fact earlier this year, I harped on the fact that national power ratings had Vanderbilt not even in the top 100. At home, they had lost to noted power Furman ;), had close victories over Lipscomb and Toledo and beat Elon (4-20 and one of the 50 worst division one teams) by only 11. I noted this was embarassing and they should fire the coach.
Somewhere around the new year, this became a new team. They had a close loss on the road at Auburn which was perhaps foreshadowing. Then in the course of two weeks, they beat a ranked Tennessee and Alabama teams (who may have been overrated in retrospect) and went into Rupp Arena and beat Kentucky for the second time ever. They had a clunker at Tennessee but the turnaround hit a peak with the upset of #1 Florida.
What's amazing is that in six weeks this team has gone from playing like a not top 100 team with no post-season hope, to a top 15, or even top 10 team that's a lock for the NCAA tournament. ESPN predicted them as a 5 seed this week, but if they keep playing at this new level, they'd improve on that.
That said, I still think it's time to fire the coach. There's pretty clearly top 15 talent here; how bad do you have to coach to make them play like #115?
P.S. I guess the down period is a bit longer than I think. Vanderbilt is #17 in the AP poll this week, their highest ranking since 1993.
P.P.S. The Vanderbilt baseball team is #3 in the nation.
Vanderbilt hasn't been a basketball power in my lifetime. A season that ends with an NIT appearance is often a big deal. But not too long ago they used to be a force to be reckoned with at home, even when it wasn't a good year. Memorial Gym is the only one in the nation with the benches on the ends, not the sides and the student section is next to the court which creates a large home court edge. They had a series of upsets of top 5 teams in the 80s and early 90s and typically had only one or two home losses each season. But in the past 10 years, the program has really been down. In fact earlier this year, I harped on the fact that national power ratings had Vanderbilt not even in the top 100. At home, they had lost to noted power Furman ;), had close victories over Lipscomb and Toledo and beat Elon (4-20 and one of the 50 worst division one teams) by only 11. I noted this was embarassing and they should fire the coach.
Somewhere around the new year, this became a new team. They had a close loss on the road at Auburn which was perhaps foreshadowing. Then in the course of two weeks, they beat a ranked Tennessee and Alabama teams (who may have been overrated in retrospect) and went into Rupp Arena and beat Kentucky for the second time ever. They had a clunker at Tennessee but the turnaround hit a peak with the upset of #1 Florida.
What's amazing is that in six weeks this team has gone from playing like a not top 100 team with no post-season hope, to a top 15, or even top 10 team that's a lock for the NCAA tournament. ESPN predicted them as a 5 seed this week, but if they keep playing at this new level, they'd improve on that.
That said, I still think it's time to fire the coach. There's pretty clearly top 15 talent here; how bad do you have to coach to make them play like #115?
P.S. I guess the down period is a bit longer than I think. Vanderbilt is #17 in the AP poll this week, their highest ranking since 1993.
P.P.S. The Vanderbilt baseball team is #3 in the nation.
Friday, February 16
The Best TV show you aren't watching
Veronica Mars got a couple of national mentions in yesterday's newspapers. National advice columnist Amy Dickinson aka Ask Amy mentioned that Veronica Mars was one of her favorite TV shows and Frazz referred to Kristin Bell.
I'll be the first to admit, that as a serial it's hard to start watching in the middle and follow the major mystery. And next Tuesday's episode is the conclusion of a two-parter, so you might really be lost. But check it out Tuesdays at 9PM/8 Central. This season has been down a bit, but the last episode was one of the best. Even if you don't follow everything that's going on, you'll enjoy the dialogue which is perhaps the best written on TV.
As for who killed Dean O'Dell. I think I know, but I'm not saying :). I've also read some interesting theories on the internet that could prove to be right. I'm pretty sure all the key clues are in place already and it's almost as obvious as it seems.
I'll be the first to admit, that as a serial it's hard to start watching in the middle and follow the major mystery. And next Tuesday's episode is the conclusion of a two-parter, so you might really be lost. But check it out Tuesdays at 9PM/8 Central. This season has been down a bit, but the last episode was one of the best. Even if you don't follow everything that's going on, you'll enjoy the dialogue which is perhaps the best written on TV.
As for who killed Dean O'Dell. I think I know, but I'm not saying :). I've also read some interesting theories on the internet that could prove to be right. I'm pretty sure all the key clues are in place already and it's almost as obvious as it seems.
Saturday, February 10
Event Planning and Scheduling
The lack of foresight by generally intelligent people never ceases to surprise me. Monica and I spent a couple of years working on a large dinner and fundraising auction and likely will again for a different organization. So I always pay attention to how other people plan their events and take mental notes on things they do and don't think about.
And one thing people don't think about is scheduling. Monica found a charity auction for a Jewish organization she wanted to attend. But when she told me the date, I realized it was Super Bowl Sunday. I realize not everyone cares about the Super Bowl at the level I do, but on average 1/3 of the country was watching and nearly 50% of all people in the United States watched part of the game. Why schedule any event opposite that, unless it's a direct appeal to the non-football crowd?
A couple of days ago we got a "Save the Date" for Village Theatre's auction; that's the event where Monica won her walk on role in Hello Dolly and we were looking forward to going this year. They've moved the event from a March weeknight to a May weekend, where it conflicts with a couple things for us. (And they doubled the price to $200 and changed the venue from Issaquah to Seattle. Three strikes you're out.) The conflicts are somewhat specific to us, but when you pick the 3rd Saturday in May a number of people who are used to going to VT are going to have a conflicting event and you'll lose them. Not to say you can't do this, but I doubt there was much thought put into this.
And the kicker! This week I was emailed about two fun events. One is about Jews and chocolate with lots of chocolate samples (yum) and the other is a presentation at EMP about the music behind the Disney theme parks. I'd like to go to both and Monica would like the chocolate one. However both are the evening of February 14th. As my financial planner said "Remember, February 14...and don't think you can get away with doing something early and skipping the special notes, cards and flowers on the 14th." Personally Valentine's Day is my least favorite holiday, but even I recognize that most people are going to have plans that night.
With only 365 days and thousands of events, obviously there are going to be conflicts. But you think you'd think reasonable people would try to avoid major conflicts, whether "major" is the significance of the event or the sheer number of people impacted by it.
And one thing people don't think about is scheduling. Monica found a charity auction for a Jewish organization she wanted to attend. But when she told me the date, I realized it was Super Bowl Sunday. I realize not everyone cares about the Super Bowl at the level I do, but on average 1/3 of the country was watching and nearly 50% of all people in the United States watched part of the game. Why schedule any event opposite that, unless it's a direct appeal to the non-football crowd?
A couple of days ago we got a "Save the Date" for Village Theatre's auction; that's the event where Monica won her walk on role in Hello Dolly and we were looking forward to going this year. They've moved the event from a March weeknight to a May weekend, where it conflicts with a couple things for us. (And they doubled the price to $200 and changed the venue from Issaquah to Seattle. Three strikes you're out.) The conflicts are somewhat specific to us, but when you pick the 3rd Saturday in May a number of people who are used to going to VT are going to have a conflicting event and you'll lose them. Not to say you can't do this, but I doubt there was much thought put into this.
And the kicker! This week I was emailed about two fun events. One is about Jews and chocolate with lots of chocolate samples (yum) and the other is a presentation at EMP about the music behind the Disney theme parks. I'd like to go to both and Monica would like the chocolate one. However both are the evening of February 14th. As my financial planner said "Remember, February 14...and don't think you can get away with doing something early and skipping the special notes, cards and flowers on the 14th." Personally Valentine's Day is my least favorite holiday, but even I recognize that most people are going to have plans that night.
With only 365 days and thousands of events, obviously there are going to be conflicts. But you think you'd think reasonable people would try to avoid major conflicts, whether "major" is the significance of the event or the sheer number of people impacted by it.
Wednesday, February 7
Super Bowl Redux
I wasn't going to blog on the Super Bowl. But after rewatching the game to see the commercials I missed I did have a few general observations. But first I wanted to share this quote from Nate Silver:
It’s not a good day to be writing. Sunday was the Super Bowl, and while I managed to avoid a serious hangover, our spirit is down in Chi-town, and so is the temperature, which at last glance was lower than Rex Grossman’s passer rating. On the four-block walk to Best Buy to purchase a new mouse, I encountered no fewer than three frozen-over piles of vomit; that sort of encapsulates the mood of the city.
The temperature in Chicago was 3 degrees this morning but don't worry it's supposed to get up to 11 today and 16 tomorrow. And with the sun out, it feels like it's in the 20s.
Back to the game:
It’s not a good day to be writing. Sunday was the Super Bowl, and while I managed to avoid a serious hangover, our spirit is down in Chi-town, and so is the temperature, which at last glance was lower than Rex Grossman’s passer rating. On the four-block walk to Best Buy to purchase a new mouse, I encountered no fewer than three frozen-over piles of vomit; that sort of encapsulates the mood of the city.
The temperature in Chicago was 3 degrees this morning but don't worry it's supposed to get up to 11 today and 16 tomorrow. And with the sun out, it feels like it's in the 20s.
Back to the game:
- It's really a shame that such an important game had to be decided it such horrible weather. I'm not saying that the weather was a factor, but the NFL puts the Super Bowl in warm weather or domed locations specifically to avoid a day like Sunday.
- As always the game came down to taking advantage of opportunities. The Colts hit their open wide receiver for a touchdown and the Bears missed two chances -- and both became interceptions. And it's a game of inches -- if Grossman gets a little more on the sideline pass, Muhammed would have had a big gain, maybe a touchdown or if the DB is an inch to the left, he steps out of bounds at midfield instead of returning it all the way. Somewhat an exaggeration, but that play was potentially a 14-point swing.
- The TV coverage was really poor. On Wayne's TD there was never a shot or discussion of how he got so wide open. On the (phantom) fourth-quarter holding penalty that negated a Thomas Jones run and put the Bears at 1st and 20, again there was not a replay or discussion. On the 4th down pass to Desmond Clark the offically ended the Bears last chance there was no talk on if it might be a catch. And all of these were key plays.
- And on those lines, I wish the NFL would decide or change the rules on what is and isn't a catch. Clark had control, got both feet down and took a step before the ball was knocked loose; Indianapolis would have recovered a fumble but that play sure used to be catch and fumble not an incomplete pass. Likewise I've seen catches where the ball moves at the receiver hits the ground overruled as incomplete for that reason and what looks like the same play where an incompletion is changed to a catch. I like instant replay, but sometimes it adds to the controversy instead of preventing it.
- I was disappointed, though not surprised, that they gave MVP to Peyton Manning. The Colts defense was the MVP of this game, but there wasn't one outstanding player to give it to. On offense, the running game killed the Bears; Manning was just OK. I would have split it between Addai and Rhodes.
Monday, February 5
Super Bowl
Oh well. Wait 'til next year.
In brighter news, Monica and I became an aunt and uncle for the second time* last week. Her sister delivered Arianna Aristodemo Monday night just before 9 PM central time. She was 6 lbs, 11 oz and 18 1/4 inches long. She joins big brother Jonah who is three years old as Sandra and Gio's children. Monica is headed to Chicago this weekend to visit Jonah who's feeling a little bit neglected; part of that is he has a cold and can't be near the baby.
I post some pictures, but I haven't seen any yet :(
* Yeh, I know that doesn't really make sense, but you get the idea.
In brighter news, Monica and I became an aunt and uncle for the second time* last week. Her sister delivered Arianna Aristodemo Monday night just before 9 PM central time. She was 6 lbs, 11 oz and 18 1/4 inches long. She joins big brother Jonah who is three years old as Sandra and Gio's children. Monica is headed to Chicago this weekend to visit Jonah who's feeling a little bit neglected; part of that is he has a cold and can't be near the baby.
I post some pictures, but I haven't seen any yet :(
* Yeh, I know that doesn't really make sense, but you get the idea.
Saturday, February 3
Bulls beat the Sonics
(Note: don't miss my Super Bowl post below this one)
Monica and I watched the visiting Bulls beat the Sonics last night. This was another item we got at a charity auction. The game was on ESPN, so I imagine anyone who cares already saw it. It was a surprisingly good game in that it was close the whole way a relatively high scoring. This is likely the only NBA game I'll attend this season.
Many years ago I used to have a six or seven game plan for Sonics tickets. I watched them a lot on TV. I sat outside in line for tickets for the NBA Finals the year they lost game 7 in Houston. I went to the NBA Finals when they played the Bulls. Then they had their mid-90s implosion.
They became the first #1 seed to lose to a #8 seed in playoffs. The next season they tore down the Coliseum to build Key Arena and played in Tacoma. After making the fans trek to Tacoma (easily an hour in rush hour traffic), they rewarded them by being upset again in the first round of the playoffs after winning the first game. When they re-signed George Karl as coach after those two disasters, I decided they were hopeless and cancelled my ticket package and gave up on this team. I still look in the paper to see how they're doing and root for them to do well when they aren't playing the Bulls. I usually go once or twice a season when offered a free ticket, though I also turn down free tickets as often as I accept. To be fair, some of that is that the NBA in general is unwatchable at times -- when the final score is 86-79 I feel like they still owe us another quarter. I don't need to see 130-125 shootouts, but I'd like to see some offense. I believe I've bought tickets to one Sonics game in the past ten years, and that was to see Michael Jordan in his last season. Charity auctions don't count because the tickets are already paid for and neither the Sonics or the original buyer get any money.
For those who don't follow the NBA, the Sonics now have the fourth worst record in the league and are working on a 12-game road losing streak.
Monica and I watched the visiting Bulls beat the Sonics last night. This was another item we got at a charity auction. The game was on ESPN, so I imagine anyone who cares already saw it. It was a surprisingly good game in that it was close the whole way a relatively high scoring. This is likely the only NBA game I'll attend this season.
Many years ago I used to have a six or seven game plan for Sonics tickets. I watched them a lot on TV. I sat outside in line for tickets for the NBA Finals the year they lost game 7 in Houston. I went to the NBA Finals when they played the Bulls. Then they had their mid-90s implosion.
They became the first #1 seed to lose to a #8 seed in playoffs. The next season they tore down the Coliseum to build Key Arena and played in Tacoma. After making the fans trek to Tacoma (easily an hour in rush hour traffic), they rewarded them by being upset again in the first round of the playoffs after winning the first game. When they re-signed George Karl as coach after those two disasters, I decided they were hopeless and cancelled my ticket package and gave up on this team. I still look in the paper to see how they're doing and root for them to do well when they aren't playing the Bulls. I usually go once or twice a season when offered a free ticket, though I also turn down free tickets as often as I accept. To be fair, some of that is that the NBA in general is unwatchable at times -- when the final score is 86-79 I feel like they still owe us another quarter. I don't need to see 130-125 shootouts, but I'd like to see some offense. I believe I've bought tickets to one Sonics game in the past ten years, and that was to see Michael Jordan in his last season. Charity auctions don't count because the tickets are already paid for and neither the Sonics or the original buyer get any money.
For those who don't follow the NBA, the Sonics now have the fourth worst record in the league and are working on a 12-game road losing streak.
Super Bowl Prediction
I think ESPN summed it up best -- "Super Bowl picks are like opinions, everyone has one". And opinions are like... well, never mind. And prior to the Saints-Bears game I wrote a lot about the fallacy on trying to pick an individual game.
The consensus is the Colts are likely to win. 14 of 21 ESPN experts picked the Colts. 68% of 340,000 voters in ESPN SportsNation picked them, 71 of 98 "celebrities" picked them, and the Vegas money line is -240/+200. All of which says the Colts have a 2 in 3 chance of winning according to a wide number of sources. Of course, whether that's reasoned analysis or believing what you hear, I don't know and by definition the Vegas line reflects popular opinion not reality.
That said, while I acknowledge that Indianapolis is the better team, I pick the Bears to win 30-21. Here's why.
The consensus is the Colts are likely to win. 14 of 21 ESPN experts picked the Colts. 68% of 340,000 voters in ESPN SportsNation picked them, 71 of 98 "celebrities" picked them, and the Vegas money line is -240/+200. All of which says the Colts have a 2 in 3 chance of winning according to a wide number of sources. Of course, whether that's reasoned analysis or believing what you hear, I don't know and by definition the Vegas line reflects popular opinion not reality.
That said, while I acknowledge that Indianapolis is the better team, I pick the Bears to win 30-21. Here's why.
- The emotional reason. The Bears are my team and in a close game it seems silly to pick against your team. And while the Colts are better, they're only 2-3 points better in my mind.
- The Bears are on a roll. Did you see the NFC Championship game!!
- The match-ups. The Colts have trouble stopping the run, an all-time worst run defense I believe, though they've done well in the playoffs, and the Bears like to run with Jones and Benson to control the game. Even if the Bears have some trouble stopping the run, the Colts run offense isn't good enough to beat them. The Bears have a strong pass defense which matches up against the Colts greatest strength. And the Bears kickoff and punt return team should take advantage of the Colts bottom of the league kick coverage.
- Peyton Manning. Manning is one of the great quarterbacks of all time. But he's consistently been erratic in the playoffs. For every good game he's played, he's also had a clunker. Even this year with the Colts in the Super Bowl, his post season passer rating is lower than Rex Grossman's (!), and they have the same number of TD passes though Manning has played an additional game. In his great performance against the Patriots, his rating was 79.1. The week before against Baltimore his rating was 39.6 and they won in spite of him not because of him. I don't know whether it's nerves, playing against consistently good competition, teams being more focused on stopping the Colts passing offense, too many TV commercials, or something else. Whatever it is, there's no reason to believe it won't continue against a strong Bears defense. While the QB story of the week has been which Rex Grossman will show up, really the question should be asked about Peyton Manning.
Thursday, February 1
The greatest King of all
With apologies to Doug Heffernan, I had to share this with my poker playing friends.
Monica adds, "There are 10 types of people in the world...
those who understand binary and those who don't."
Monica adds, "There are 10 types of people in the world...
those who understand binary and those who don't."
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