After my previous post, the Brewers won 5 of 6 and passed the "great collapse" tag over to the Mets who went 3-4.
Monica is headed to Chicago Tuesday night for the Cubs games Wednesday and Thursday, and I've just booked tickets to head to LA for the Saturday and Sunday games against the Dodgers. Yeh, we're excited about the Cubs in the playoffs and being the favorite to win the NL.
Predictions:
Cubs over the Dodgers in 4. This is a bad mismatch but it's hard to sweep.
Phillies over Brewers in 3. Likewise I don't think this is close, especially with Sheets hurt. The Brewers play poor defense, have a bad bullpen, and were lucky to get in the playoffs with a hot final weak AND the Mets collapse. I don't believe Sabathia can continue to pitch like he has on short rest and facing a quality offense.
Red Sox over Angels in 4. I really should get money down on this. The wisdom is the Angels are the best team in baseball, but I'd argue that they are at best the 3rd best team in the American League. They have the most wins, but beat up on a terrible division. In run differential, they're 6th in the AL. Home field advantage doesn't make up for team quality disadvantage. Angels don't even have the better closer here.
Rays over Twins in 5, White Sox in 4. Another good team vs. not-so-good team series.
Monday, September 29
Sunday, September 21
Skunky beer
In honor of the Brewers, I made French toast for breakfast. Ask David for an explanation.
Because their collapse happened in the first part of September rather than the end of the season, I expect this will be forgotten and left off the list of great collapses. But the Brewers' fade is truly amazing. By Baseball Prospectus's post season odds, Milwaukee had an 85% chance at winning the wild card on 8/31 and 2/3 of the time they "missed" the wild card it was because they actually won the division. They were a virtual lock (95%) for the post season.
Over the next three weeks, they went 5-15, including 1-8 in their last nine games, fired their manager (too little, too late) an now have only a 16% chance at the wild card. That's an 80% drop in three weeks, and a 55% drop in 8 days.
It's not over yet, but the team hurt most by this could be the Cubs who might get a hot Phillies team in the NLDS rather than a 500 Dodgers team who got in the playoffs by default.
Because their collapse happened in the first part of September rather than the end of the season, I expect this will be forgotten and left off the list of great collapses. But the Brewers' fade is truly amazing. By Baseball Prospectus's post season odds, Milwaukee had an 85% chance at winning the wild card on 8/31 and 2/3 of the time they "missed" the wild card it was because they actually won the division. They were a virtual lock (95%) for the post season.
Over the next three weeks, they went 5-15, including 1-8 in their last nine games, fired their manager (too little, too late) an now have only a 16% chance at the wild card. That's an 80% drop in three weeks, and a 55% drop in 8 days.
It's not over yet, but the team hurt most by this could be the Cubs who might get a hot Phillies team in the NLDS rather than a 500 Dodgers team who got in the playoffs by default.
Farewell George
No not that George. Our foster dog passed away in late August.
George was a sweetie who we rescued from death row. He had a loss of appetite and energy toward the end of July and we took him in for a check up. He went on Rimadyl and antibiotics and seemed to get better for a while but was never quite himself. He went in for surgery to have a small mass in his throat removed, and the vet discovered it was a large mass that was slowly closing off his windpipe and there was nothing they could do for him.
Take care George. Thanks for being part of our lives.
In happier news, we're fostering/dog sitting an 8-week old Beagle puppy this weekend. He's the cutest, sweetest thing you ever saw. If only he could stay that size forever.
George was a sweetie who we rescued from death row. He had a loss of appetite and energy toward the end of July and we took him in for a check up. He went on Rimadyl and antibiotics and seemed to get better for a while but was never quite himself. He went in for surgery to have a small mass in his throat removed, and the vet discovered it was a large mass that was slowly closing off his windpipe and there was nothing they could do for him.
Take care George. Thanks for being part of our lives.
In happier news, we're fostering/dog sitting an 8-week old Beagle puppy this weekend. He's the cutest, sweetest thing you ever saw. If only he could stay that size forever.
Sunday, September 14
New job
I started a new job four weeks ago working for Serena software. We're building Agile on Demand which is the product you see featured on the front page of the web site. It's a tool for managing Agile software projects that you'll access via your browser. The job is great, the people are great, and I feel like I'm making a real impact.
I left Ascentium at the end of July. Basically after being there for a year, my mom still couldn't remember the name of the company I worked for or what I did, so I decided to help her out. Seriously though, it just wasn't quite what I envisioned. When I interviewed and accepted the position, I really liked the people, though doing consulting would be a good experience, but was a bit apprehensive about the consulting structure and tracking hours rather than tracking work completed. And it stayed the same throughout. I liked the people and still do and miss the ones I don't see on a daily basis. And it was great when I was full-time on one project from January through March. But once that project abruptly ended, it was constant chaos trying to fill my hours and figure out if projects were real or just planned. I knew I'd be working on a number of projects and some would be short, but I always figured there'd be a backlog of waiting or upcoming projects to jump on and possibly people would be fighting for my time. Instead there just wasn't enough work and I felt like a contractor searching for work at times. I was salaried and still got paid but in the slow weeks didn't feel it was fulfilling enough. It's a good place and I'd even go back as a contractor -- I get paid when I work, I have free time when there isn't work -- but it just wasn't the right fit for me at this point.
Being back in the product world, rather than projects, I feel happier and am actually excited to see this huge pile of automation work we have to do. Oh, and I'm a pig. Mom, that should be easy to remember, but maybe it's not something to share with your friends over Rosh Hashanah dinner.
NFL and the Bears
Baseball has always been my #1 sport and still is. However unlike other professional sports, the NFL plays once a week and there's something magical about being able to sit down for one day (really 6 hours) and catch a week's worth of action. So I'm psyched about the start of the NFL season and have all the games on NFL Sunday Ticket even though my favorite team the Bears aren't supposed to be very good this year.
The consensus is that the Bears are a 6-10 or 7-9 team. However I'm actually excited about their potential. This would look a lot smarter before the first game against the Colts but I was really thinking it. 6-10 is based on an assessment that like last season they have no running game and no quarterback. However if their second-round draft pick or perhaps even Adrian Peterson can emerge as a solid running threat and Orton is mediocre instead of terrible, this team is really good in a hurry. As well, I've always felt a decent offense would improve the defense as they'd get longer breaks, spend fewer plays on the field and not have to defend a short field as often.
So far, so good.
The consensus is that the Bears are a 6-10 or 7-9 team. However I'm actually excited about their potential. This would look a lot smarter before the first game against the Colts but I was really thinking it. 6-10 is based on an assessment that like last season they have no running game and no quarterback. However if their second-round draft pick or perhaps even Adrian Peterson can emerge as a solid running threat and Orton is mediocre instead of terrible, this team is really good in a hurry. As well, I've always felt a decent offense would improve the defense as they'd get longer breaks, spend fewer plays on the field and not have to defend a short field as often.
So far, so good.
Monday, September 8
Thursday, September 4
Five Thirty-Eight
This may be the most fascinating site on the Internet right now.
Nate Silver is well-known for his work with Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA and now he's build a projection system not a prediction system for elections. This should be must read for every American at least once per week.
Before the Democratic convention, 538 projected an even race with a slight edge to Obama in electoral votes, popular vote, and likelihood of winning. Now it shows a big lead for the Democrats. That said polls are a bit of a trailing indicator and there aren't any polls that fully reflect the Republican convention. The projections attempt to adjust for that however. Have to read the latest blog posts to see where Obama has been gaining.
Nate Silver is well-known for his work with Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA and now he's build a projection system not a prediction system for elections. This should be must read for every American at least once per week.
Before the Democratic convention, 538 projected an even race with a slight edge to Obama in electoral votes, popular vote, and likelihood of winning. Now it shows a big lead for the Democrats. That said polls are a bit of a trailing indicator and there aren't any polls that fully reflect the Republican convention. The projections attempt to adjust for that however. Have to read the latest blog posts to see where Obama has been gaining.
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