I'm trying blogging from my phone. Good week of poker. Came out ahead on cash game Tuesday. Won a home game tournament Friday and cashed in the Snoqualmie tournament today.
Hmm, apparently blogging via phone doesn't create a title. Scratch that and stick to Twitter and Facebook via phone/text.
Session on Tuesday was good. I nearly doubled up early with KK vs AK with all money in pre-flop. He really thought he was racing when I four-bet!?! Played a couple more hours and gave some back. Some friends held a home game Friday night. Well, I wish it was Friday night. We were supposed to start at 9:30 but actually started at 11 (!). Without much structure and organization we kept the starting blinds for at least 90 minutes. Good news was that I chopped the prize pool with another player at 2AM though I had a small chip lead.
Today I probably played the best tournament poker I've played in a long time. I had one bad read, but basically made hands, put pressure on other people, and kept winning pots. By the time we got to the final table everyone was micro-stacking (about 2-5 BB) and the determining factors were draw for seats, getting lucky with cards, then chips, and last a touch of skill. I did poorly on the first one and wound up 8th. So I cashed twice in one day. Not sure I've ever done that.
Saturday, November 28
Friday, November 27
NFL Update
After 10+ weeks, the NFL looks exactly like I called it after 3 weeks. While it's nice to be right, it's also disappointing the the league is so predictable. The eight teams I called out as terrible are a combined 18-64 (22%) but 10 of those wins are against each other. Against the "non-terrible" teams they're 8-54 (13%), which means it's almost a guaranteed win if you play one of them. The Lions have two wins not because they're improved but because other teams have fallen to their level. As noted, 2-2 was a schedule fluke for the Redskins whose 3-7 is a better representation of the team's skill level. The Panthers, who were the top of the terrible group, appear to have upgraded to "bad".
The top is a bit trickier. I gave the Ravens too much credit for wins against bad teams and they're 2-5 since. That said all five loses are to division leaders and they were close in every game. The schedule looks more favorable the rest of the way.
The Titans shaped up from their start and people are actually talking playoffs. I think they have too many teams to catch, but 8-8 would be a great accomplishment after starting 0-6. Sadly it might help Jeff Fisher keep his job.
Beyond the Colts, I still think there's a lot of smoke and mirrors with the top teams. The Saints and Vikings have played the two easiest schedules in the league this year. (Followed by the Packers and Redskins, see I told you Washington was awful.) But no one in the NFC looks that good, so I'd expect the Vikings and Saints to win in the playoffs, but bet against them and take the points.
The top is a bit trickier. I gave the Ravens too much credit for wins against bad teams and they're 2-5 since. That said all five loses are to division leaders and they were close in every game. The schedule looks more favorable the rest of the way.
The Titans shaped up from their start and people are actually talking playoffs. I think they have too many teams to catch, but 8-8 would be a great accomplishment after starting 0-6. Sadly it might help Jeff Fisher keep his job.
Beyond the Colts, I still think there's a lot of smoke and mirrors with the top teams. The Saints and Vikings have played the two easiest schedules in the league this year. (Followed by the Packers and Redskins, see I told you Washington was awful.) But no one in the NFC looks that good, so I'd expect the Vikings and Saints to win in the playoffs, but bet against them and take the points.
Sunday, November 22
The wild variance of tournaments
Tournaments are great fun because you can turn a 60 buy in into a few hundred of few thousand dollars in three or four hours. I enjoy them because the competition is generally week because people don't adjust their play to tournament constraints. Adequate cash players become bad tournament players and bad players become terrible in tournaments.
The flip side is the variance is high. While 30-50% of cash players at a table come out ahead only 10-15% of players in any tournament make the money. As well, with short stacks, you can't be patient and one mistake or one unlucky hand can do you in. Today was a day like that.
Played the Snoqualmie $60 bounty tournament. In addition to paying the top 10 players, you get $10 for every player you bust out. It's a reasonable tournament -- the players aren't very tough but it plays pretty fast. You have to take some chances. Today I had three key hands in huge pots, which coincidentally all involved the same hole cards.
Experts say that when you get under 8-12 big blinds, you should either go all-in or fold preflop. In part that's because you shouldn't raise for 1/3 of your stack and then ever fold. I generally agree but I've found that in these fast tournaments, bad players react almost the same to any raise size. If you have 10 BB whether you raise to 3 BB or 10 BB, people will look you up with TT,AQ+ and fold everything else. A small raise puts a few more hands in play. Thus a small raise has almost the same benefit is a big raise without risking your tournament life with 5-high. That said this play can sometimes get you in trouble. Because of my cards, stack size, and position, I wound up with a few hands where I raised, got called and was all-in on the flop.
First time I had king-rag, flopped a king and both players folded. Then the last hand before the break, the first key hand came up which hurt me. I read an article where the author declared the worst thing that happens in poker is when a third party makes a stupid play which affects the outcome of the hand. And I ran into this here. A MP limps, late position player with a short stack limps in, I complete the SB with JT, BB checks. The flop is 5-2-2 rainbow. This seems like a good spot to bluff -- except for BB, there's no reason anyone should have a 5, 2, or 43 -- so I make a small bet, BB calls (oops), LP calls (double oops). Even if I hit a J or T on the turn, I'm going to be careful. Turn is a T, I check BB bets 1200, LP goes all-in for 1800, I think a long time and fold -- one of them must have me beat, BB says "I have to call". BB has 95, LP has Kh7h, there are not two hearts on the board. LP simply decided he wanted to go home. He made obvious mistakes on all three streets including a naked bluff with no fold equity; it's his money he can do what he wants BUT his stupid play cost me the pot and truly donated chips to BB. I could call one player here, but not two.
Next key hand. UTG limps and it folds to me in the hijack with 7h5h. I decide to steal here, though to be honest I missed that UTG was in until I declared raise. The BB and UTG both call. Flop is Th-8h-5s, pretty good for my hand. Both players check, I shove all in for 2/3 of the pot, BB folds but UTG tanks and finally calls with JdTd. His call is easy if he knows what I have, even though I'm a slight favorite, but this is the exact peril of limp calling (see a couple posts below) with a marginal hand. Even if you hit, you have no idea if your hand is good. Turn ace, River 7. I survive.
Last hand. One mid position limper. I have AJ in SB and raise to 1200, BB is only caller. Flop is J-T-x. I bet 2000, BB raises to 4000, I got all in for about 5500, he calls (uh oh). He has JT. The turn is a ace, but he resucks with a river ten and I'm done. This worked great for him, but I think he'll get in trouble calling here with JT. If he doesn't hit the ten, he's going to lose a lot of chips here.
Poker is a game of skill, but in the short term, luck plays a pretty huge factor. And my luck wasn't so good today.
The flip side is the variance is high. While 30-50% of cash players at a table come out ahead only 10-15% of players in any tournament make the money. As well, with short stacks, you can't be patient and one mistake or one unlucky hand can do you in. Today was a day like that.
Played the Snoqualmie $60 bounty tournament. In addition to paying the top 10 players, you get $10 for every player you bust out. It's a reasonable tournament -- the players aren't very tough but it plays pretty fast. You have to take some chances. Today I had three key hands in huge pots, which coincidentally all involved the same hole cards.
Experts say that when you get under 8-12 big blinds, you should either go all-in or fold preflop. In part that's because you shouldn't raise for 1/3 of your stack and then ever fold. I generally agree but I've found that in these fast tournaments, bad players react almost the same to any raise size. If you have 10 BB whether you raise to 3 BB or 10 BB, people will look you up with TT,AQ+ and fold everything else. A small raise puts a few more hands in play. Thus a small raise has almost the same benefit is a big raise without risking your tournament life with 5-high. That said this play can sometimes get you in trouble. Because of my cards, stack size, and position, I wound up with a few hands where I raised, got called and was all-in on the flop.
First time I had king-rag, flopped a king and both players folded. Then the last hand before the break, the first key hand came up which hurt me. I read an article where the author declared the worst thing that happens in poker is when a third party makes a stupid play which affects the outcome of the hand. And I ran into this here. A MP limps, late position player with a short stack limps in, I complete the SB with JT, BB checks. The flop is 5-2-2 rainbow. This seems like a good spot to bluff -- except for BB, there's no reason anyone should have a 5, 2, or 43 -- so I make a small bet, BB calls (oops), LP calls (double oops). Even if I hit a J or T on the turn, I'm going to be careful. Turn is a T, I check BB bets 1200, LP goes all-in for 1800, I think a long time and fold -- one of them must have me beat, BB says "I have to call". BB has 95, LP has Kh7h, there are not two hearts on the board. LP simply decided he wanted to go home. He made obvious mistakes on all three streets including a naked bluff with no fold equity; it's his money he can do what he wants BUT his stupid play cost me the pot and truly donated chips to BB. I could call one player here, but not two.
Next key hand. UTG limps and it folds to me in the hijack with 7h5h. I decide to steal here, though to be honest I missed that UTG was in until I declared raise. The BB and UTG both call. Flop is Th-8h-5s, pretty good for my hand. Both players check, I shove all in for 2/3 of the pot, BB folds but UTG tanks and finally calls with JdTd. His call is easy if he knows what I have, even though I'm a slight favorite, but this is the exact peril of limp calling (see a couple posts below) with a marginal hand. Even if you hit, you have no idea if your hand is good. Turn ace, River 7. I survive.
Last hand. One mid position limper. I have AJ in SB and raise to 1200, BB is only caller. Flop is J-T-x. I bet 2000, BB raises to 4000, I got all in for about 5500, he calls (uh oh). He has JT. The turn is a ace, but he resucks with a river ten and I'm done. This worked great for him, but I think he'll get in trouble calling here with JT. If he doesn't hit the ten, he's going to lose a lot of chips here.
Poker is a game of skill, but in the short term, luck plays a pretty huge factor. And my luck wasn't so good today.
Friday, November 20
Snoqualmie 11/18
Had one of the most frustrating nights of poker in a while. First see my previous post on bad players.
Was at a good table at Snoqualmie against a number of bad players and wound up down a buy-in. Played three or four hands the first hour and was up $4 -- I had K8 in the blinds flopped top pair a rivered a straight and won a small pot. I could never get anything going. Had at most one big pair, no big aces that I recall, and a couple of small pairs. Saw a lot of KQ, KJ, 75 hands.
A made a few bad plays, but meanwhile I watched people throw money around. The guy on my left seemed like he had never played live before -- needed an explanation on every bit of terminology. He was pretty tight, but would limp call for 20% of his stack. I made a bunch of second best hands, but I think my real problem was inconsistent aggression. I'd make a loose raise pre-flop then give up when someone check-called. I think I could have pushed people off better hands a few times with a turn or river bet. And I probably played a bit too lose.
But ultimately when people are calling too often, you have to make a hand to win, and I couldn't make a hand.
Overall I'd grade my play a B-, but I need to be on my A game.
Was at a good table at Snoqualmie against a number of bad players and wound up down a buy-in. Played three or four hands the first hour and was up $4 -- I had K8 in the blinds flopped top pair a rivered a straight and won a small pot. I could never get anything going. Had at most one big pair, no big aces that I recall, and a couple of small pairs. Saw a lot of KQ, KJ, 75 hands.
A made a few bad plays, but meanwhile I watched people throw money around. The guy on my left seemed like he had never played live before -- needed an explanation on every bit of terminology. He was pretty tight, but would limp call for 20% of his stack. I made a bunch of second best hands, but I think my real problem was inconsistent aggression. I'd make a loose raise pre-flop then give up when someone check-called. I think I could have pushed people off better hands a few times with a turn or river bet. And I probably played a bit too lose.
But ultimately when people are calling too often, you have to make a hand to win, and I couldn't make a hand.
Overall I'd grade my play a B-, but I need to be on my A game.
Recognizing bad players, way #1: Limp, call
A key element to winning at poker is playing against bad players. If everyone at the table is as good or better than you, the only way you can make money is to get lucky. So it's critical to find bad players and be able to recognize them. How do you find a bad player? Easy, look for them to make bad plays. What's a bad play, well that's not so easy. But here's a favorite of mine.
Sklansky's gap theory says you need a better hand to call a raise then to raise. An application of that is that limp calling is a bad decision. You have a hand you've already deciding isn't worth raising, are now faced with a raise and decide to call the raise. Essentially concluding A > B > A.
Like anything in poker, it's not a hard truth but "it depends". This doesn't apply to a fixed limit game where you're getting at least 4:1 and sometimes 10:1 on your call; here you'd be foolish to fold though this is a reason to not limp first in or in early position. In non-poker terms, once you've paid/wasted $4 for a bottle of water, you might as well drink it. In no limit games, this is often a bad play but one you see all the time. With deep enough stacks and a speculative hand, it makes sense to call a small raise with a speculative hand, like a small pair. But you need to be able to win enough money when it hits to make up for the times it misses. If you start with $100, limp in early position with 44 and someone raises to 25, you can't call off 1/4 of your stack. You'd actually be wise to fold a raise to 15 unless several others are in the pot but that's open to discussion.
That said, one of the worst plays you can make is to limp with a medium strength hand -- a suited ace, ace-jack, ace-ten, two face cards -- then call a raise out of position when you're easily dominated. You're better calling with 98 than with AT even though AT is a better hand overall.
This is doubly true in a short-stack game where players have 20-50 BB only. Watch players who limp call and see if they ever put in more than 10% of their stack or have trouble hands.
Sklansky's gap theory says you need a better hand to call a raise then to raise. An application of that is that limp calling is a bad decision. You have a hand you've already deciding isn't worth raising, are now faced with a raise and decide to call the raise. Essentially concluding A > B > A.
Like anything in poker, it's not a hard truth but "it depends". This doesn't apply to a fixed limit game where you're getting at least 4:1 and sometimes 10:1 on your call; here you'd be foolish to fold though this is a reason to not limp first in or in early position. In non-poker terms, once you've paid/wasted $4 for a bottle of water, you might as well drink it. In no limit games, this is often a bad play but one you see all the time. With deep enough stacks and a speculative hand, it makes sense to call a small raise with a speculative hand, like a small pair. But you need to be able to win enough money when it hits to make up for the times it misses. If you start with $100, limp in early position with 44 and someone raises to 25, you can't call off 1/4 of your stack. You'd actually be wise to fold a raise to 15 unless several others are in the pot but that's open to discussion.
That said, one of the worst plays you can make is to limp with a medium strength hand -- a suited ace, ace-jack, ace-ten, two face cards -- then call a raise out of position when you're easily dominated. You're better calling with 98 than with AT even though AT is a better hand overall.
This is doubly true in a short-stack game where players have 20-50 BB only. Watch players who limp call and see if they ever put in more than 10% of their stack or have trouble hands.
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