"Big Z is on a short leash"
From short leash to dog house in less than 24 hours. At least it gets Gorzelanny back in the rotation.
I loved Piniella's comment, basically how do you blame the defense when the guy hits the ball in the seats.
Friday, June 25
Thursday, June 24
The Idiocy of the Cubs
The Cubs are in town which happens about once every 6 years, so I spent much of the past three days at the Mariners games. Looking at the talent on the team, I've been puzzled at why the Cubs have struggled this year. The starting pitching is so good, Zambrano has spent much of the year in the pen. Marshall and Marmol are great to close out games. And there's a collection of pretty good hitters.
Having looked closer, it's pretty apparent that there are two things going on. First, despite the names and reputations on the infielders they've been terrible this year. In fact Lee, Theriot, Castro, and Ramirez have all played below replacement level. That pretty much kills the offense. Lee's OPS is down 250 points from last year and he's played below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection. Theriot and Ramirez are below their 10% as well. In fact Ramirez put up 200 of the worst at bats ever before going on the DL. These three guys are 6 wins worse than projected already. To some degree, you can't do anything about good players sucking.
But then there's an insane about of stupid decision making going on. Lou Piniella is beloved in Seattle as the manager who got the Mariners to the playoffs, but I've never been impressed. The Cubs best hitters this year are Colvin, Soriano, Byrd, and Soto. It took until June before Colvin became a regular, Soriano is only playing 2/3 of the time, Soto spent most of the year hitting 7th or 8th and recently lost his starting job to Koyie Hill (who can't hit worth a lick). The Cubs worst hitters are Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, and Lee. Lee has hit 3rd or 4th all season, Theriot has hit leadoff until recently and Baker has been given the 3rd base job with Ramirez hurt. Now batting order doesn't matter much, but you have to think that getting the best hitters in the lineup every day at the top of the order and putting the weaker hitters at the bottom couldn't hurt.
Wait, but then there's the pitching. Tom Gorzelanny isn't the name that some of the others are but he was the Cubs best starter last year, though he had a terrible ERA because of a 62% strand rate -- a level so low it has to be bad luck. And this year he's been striking on > 1 batter per inning something matched by only 4 NL starters. He's probably the Cubs best starter again yet he's relegated to the bullpen, where he's been ineffective. That said, it's a pretty tough call who to put in the pen. Zambrano and Lilly are the 5th and 6th best starters but the Cubs have invested a lot in them and really need the big three to succeed. But Gorz has been too good to NOT to go every 5 days. Much like Colvin, it doesn't matter which OF you sit because he's better than all of them. Personally I'd put Lilly in the pen to see if he can get his act together but Big Z is on a short leash. Or I'd think about something radical like a six-man rotation letting them pitch a bit deeper into games.
That said, with the complete disaster by the infield, this team is dead in the water. But they're also making dumb decisions on a daily basis that cost the team runs and wins.
If there's a silver lining, it's doubtful Piniella will be back. I expect him to "retire" and become a broadcaster.
Having looked closer, it's pretty apparent that there are two things going on. First, despite the names and reputations on the infielders they've been terrible this year. In fact Lee, Theriot, Castro, and Ramirez have all played below replacement level. That pretty much kills the offense. Lee's OPS is down 250 points from last year and he's played below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection. Theriot and Ramirez are below their 10% as well. In fact Ramirez put up 200 of the worst at bats ever before going on the DL. These three guys are 6 wins worse than projected already. To some degree, you can't do anything about good players sucking.
But then there's an insane about of stupid decision making going on. Lou Piniella is beloved in Seattle as the manager who got the Mariners to the playoffs, but I've never been impressed. The Cubs best hitters this year are Colvin, Soriano, Byrd, and Soto. It took until June before Colvin became a regular, Soriano is only playing 2/3 of the time, Soto spent most of the year hitting 7th or 8th and recently lost his starting job to Koyie Hill (who can't hit worth a lick). The Cubs worst hitters are Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, and Lee. Lee has hit 3rd or 4th all season, Theriot has hit leadoff until recently and Baker has been given the 3rd base job with Ramirez hurt. Now batting order doesn't matter much, but you have to think that getting the best hitters in the lineup every day at the top of the order and putting the weaker hitters at the bottom couldn't hurt.
Wait, but then there's the pitching. Tom Gorzelanny isn't the name that some of the others are but he was the Cubs best starter last year, though he had a terrible ERA because of a 62% strand rate -- a level so low it has to be bad luck. And this year he's been striking on > 1 batter per inning something matched by only 4 NL starters. He's probably the Cubs best starter again yet he's relegated to the bullpen, where he's been ineffective. That said, it's a pretty tough call who to put in the pen. Zambrano and Lilly are the 5th and 6th best starters but the Cubs have invested a lot in them and really need the big three to succeed. But Gorz has been too good to NOT to go every 5 days. Much like Colvin, it doesn't matter which OF you sit because he's better than all of them. Personally I'd put Lilly in the pen to see if he can get his act together but Big Z is on a short leash. Or I'd think about something radical like a six-man rotation letting them pitch a bit deeper into games.
That said, with the complete disaster by the infield, this team is dead in the water. But they're also making dumb decisions on a daily basis that cost the team runs and wins.
If there's a silver lining, it's doubtful Piniella will be back. I expect him to "retire" and become a broadcaster.
Monday, June 21
Blogging is hard
No, not a self pity party just an observation. Even people who start blogs with the best of intentions tend to fail pretty quickly. Seems if I discover a new web site and it has a blog, the default is it hasn't been updated since 2009.
and I assume intending to post something new each day. He started April 1 and had 30 posts in April, which is awesome. He had a couple the first week of May, a couple over the next two weeks and then there's nothing for the past five weeks. In his quest for 365 he made it to 34. And sadly, this seems to be typical. Once you fall of the wagon of blogging daily, it's easy to throw your hands up in the air and give up all together.A guy I know recently started a blog and Facebook page "365 things to do...", i.e., one for each day of the year. My cousin David is one of the few people I know who's kept a blog running. But now that he has a job, he's gone 11 days without a post.
I wonder if blogs will simply go away. And people's "blogs" will be their stream of Facebook and Twitter comments. And that would be a bad thing because much as I love Twitter, you can't really have an extended though in 140 or even 280 characters. It's great for "Toy Story 3 is awesome. Loved it.", but it's not nearly enough space for real thoughts on why it was great, much less a real review.
When talking about poker, it's easy for me to Tweet ("Playing 2-5 at Snoqualmie. Three way all-in with QT and 87.") or post to Facebook ("Going to Hideaway to play the 11 AM tournament. Where's a good place in Shoreline to eat?") about my high level plans and hands but I can't actual discuss anything that happens.
Thus I hope I continue to blog, though it's going to be in spurts.
and I assume intending to post something new each day. He started April 1 and had 30 posts in April, which is awesome. He had a couple the first week of May, a couple over the next two weeks and then there's nothing for the past five weeks. In his quest for 365 he made it to 34. And sadly, this seems to be typical. Once you fall of the wagon of blogging daily, it's easy to throw your hands up in the air and give up all together.A guy I know recently started a blog and Facebook page "365 things to do...", i.e., one for each day of the year. My cousin David is one of the few people I know who's kept a blog running. But now that he has a job, he's gone 11 days without a post.
I wonder if blogs will simply go away. And people's "blogs" will be their stream of Facebook and Twitter comments. And that would be a bad thing because much as I love Twitter, you can't really have an extended though in 140 or even 280 characters. It's great for "Toy Story 3 is awesome. Loved it.", but it's not nearly enough space for real thoughts on why it was great, much less a real review.
When talking about poker, it's easy for me to Tweet ("Playing 2-5 at Snoqualmie. Three way all-in with QT and 87.") or post to Facebook ("Going to Hideaway to play the 11 AM tournament. Where's a good place in Shoreline to eat?") about my high level plans and hands but I can't actual discuss anything that happens.
Thus I hope I continue to blog, though it's going to be in spurts.
TGIM
Yes, really. Thank goodness it's Monday. This was a crazy weekend. Saturday we went to the Edmonds Art Fair. Monica wanted to go to the Fremont Fair -- I don't really like the Fremont Fair but it's one of those things you do for love and I'm willing to go every 4 years or so. But I thought it would be fun to try something different. The Edmonds Art fair was actually pretty good. It's a lot like Salmon Days with a lot of arts, crafts, and food vendors (honey, spice rubs), along with a couple of concessions areas, though not as big. Monica was really happy we went. However we walked around for a couple hours, then decided to walk into downtown Edmonds and walk around for another hour, then walked up hill to the car. Add in a long drive there, a longer drive home to get around the traffic on I-5 and it's a long day. But it didn't end there as I went to the Mariners game that night.
Sunday we got up all took all three dogs to the Furry 5K. They start the walk at 10 AM because they want to be done and get the dogs away before it gets hot. Hah! It was mid 50s and rainy. Monica and I were wet, a bit cold, and a bit unhappy. The dogs were all filthy messes but they had a great time. Unfortunately at the end of the walk, we just wanted to get home rather than spend much time at the vendor booths. Got back to the car and headed home just as the rain got a lot worse. The walk wasn't as exhausting physically as it was mentally.
Got home just in time to get a call from the JCC Softball League Coordinator about whether we should cancel softball games. This is the un-fun part of being league chair. People want to play, and you have to play in rain in Seattle, but no one wants to get hurt on wet outfield grass. They installed turf fields so the infields can take a lot of water. We'd already had one injury so we decided to cancel the rest of the day. Of course, 30 minutes later the rain stopped. Still I think the fields were really, really wet and the outfields weren't safe.
Had some lunch then took a nice hot shower. Then I went to the Storm game Sunday night. Great game, though Sue Bird got hurt.
Now it's Monday and I can relax and get some stuff done around the house. Though all I'm actually doing is email and blogging.
Sunday we got up all took all three dogs to the Furry 5K. They start the walk at 10 AM because they want to be done and get the dogs away before it gets hot. Hah! It was mid 50s and rainy. Monica and I were wet, a bit cold, and a bit unhappy. The dogs were all filthy messes but they had a great time. Unfortunately at the end of the walk, we just wanted to get home rather than spend much time at the vendor booths. Got back to the car and headed home just as the rain got a lot worse. The walk wasn't as exhausting physically as it was mentally.
Got home just in time to get a call from the JCC Softball League Coordinator about whether we should cancel softball games. This is the un-fun part of being league chair. People want to play, and you have to play in rain in Seattle, but no one wants to get hurt on wet outfield grass. They installed turf fields so the infields can take a lot of water. We'd already had one injury so we decided to cancel the rest of the day. Of course, 30 minutes later the rain stopped. Still I think the fields were really, really wet and the outfields weren't safe.
Had some lunch then took a nice hot shower. Then I went to the Storm game Sunday night. Great game, though Sue Bird got hurt.
Now it's Monday and I can relax and get some stuff done around the house. Though all I'm actually doing is email and blogging.
Thursday, June 17
Blackhawks
Wow, I guess I hadn't been following hockey very closely since I moved to Seattle. I hadn't realized the Blackhawks had been so bad for so long. The Blackhawks made the playoffs every year from 1970-1995. Since then they'd made the playoffs only in 2002 before this year and last year. One playoff appearance in 13 years, then the playoffs then a Stanley Cup final. Pretty quick return from the dead.
Home Improvement this week
Our hardwood floors are done. Our contractor just needs to put together some things he took apart to install the floors, like closet doors and the cover to the air return. And then the hardwood stairs go in which is a different project. We decided to just use solid white risers (the vertical part of the stairs), so I painted the MDF boards that he brought over. Thought it might take a couple hours, but with a roller and a long handle it took about 15 minutes for the actual painting.
Our deck is going, going. They delivered the new boards today.
I need to plant some fruit shrubs and trees. Seems like a good time as it's still wet and rainy. Also been working on our auction business a bit.
Played poker Tuesday night at Snoqualmie Casino. It was the first time I'd been there in three months. I came back from Las Vegas in March and was a bit frustrated and took a break. Between being out of town every weekend, finishing up work, and knowing I was going to Vegas, poker didn't fit in April or May, or when it did I met Meier in Seattle. Anyway, a very boring session. I saw two pocket pairs -- raised and flopped top set with jacks, called a raise and folded the flop with sixes -- and AK and AQ (won with both), and a bunch of nothing. Good news is I finished up a bit. A lot of times when card dead I play too many very speculative hands and wind up behind. I tightened up and just made money where I could. Bummer is that it was a very good table -- saw a number of pre-flop all-ins for $200 with marginal hands. Lots of money was being passed around. Couldn't really get much though.
Anyway, back to work on home projects.
Our deck is going, going. They delivered the new boards today.
I need to plant some fruit shrubs and trees. Seems like a good time as it's still wet and rainy. Also been working on our auction business a bit.
Played poker Tuesday night at Snoqualmie Casino. It was the first time I'd been there in three months. I came back from Las Vegas in March and was a bit frustrated and took a break. Between being out of town every weekend, finishing up work, and knowing I was going to Vegas, poker didn't fit in April or May, or when it did I met Meier in Seattle. Anyway, a very boring session. I saw two pocket pairs -- raised and flopped top set with jacks, called a raise and folded the flop with sixes -- and AK and AQ (won with both), and a bunch of nothing. Good news is I finished up a bit. A lot of times when card dead I play too many very speculative hands and wind up behind. I tightened up and just made money where I could. Bummer is that it was a very good table -- saw a number of pre-flop all-ins for $200 with marginal hands. Lots of money was being passed around. Couldn't really get much though.
Anyway, back to work on home projects.
Monday, June 14
Update
As expected I didn't blog from Las Vegas. I was doing some running updates on Twitter and Facebook. Just not enough time/dedication to sit for 10 minutes each day and blog.
Had a great time in Vegas. The weather was hot and sunny and I actually got to enjoy it for at least a few minutes each day. Yes most of my time was spent inside poker rooms -- which is why the weather in Vegas doesn't matter too much -- but I walked outside and spent a few mornings relaxing by the pool. Overall I wound up down a bit for the trip playing poker. I did really well the first week, then the second week I made a few mistakes and got a bit unlucky in a few hands. No doubt playing a lot improved my game. One of my big takeaways is learning to trust my reads -- i.e., whether my opponent has a hand or is bluffing -- which have been dead on. I've been pretty good but lost a few pots where I called and should have raised.
I played at about a dozen different poker rooms and stopped by two or three others just to take a look. Added to my chip collection and upgraded a number of other chips to excellent condition. I guess with all the action the WSOP brings to town a lot of places put new $1 chips in play. Speaking of which, one of the really cool things I did was to check out the WSOP action. Meier and I watched the $50,000 Players Championship where we could see 100 of the best -- or at least 100 of the wealthiest poker players -- up close. Basically every big name player was there, like an all-star game or sorts. I'd say 1/3 of the field was big name players anyone who follows the sport would recognize (Doyle Brunson, Mike Matusow, Phil Hellmuth, etc.), 1/3 were guys some people would recognize or some knew that they won this or that tournament, and the rest appeared to be internet wonder kids. There were a bunch of young guys that didn't look at all familiar. In addition to watching the start, I came back three days later to sit in the studio and watch the final three battle it out. It's just what you see on TV. In fact if you watch on ESPN July 27th, you should be able to see me on TV.
Also met up with my cousins Roz and Irv while there and got to catch up. And I did a touristy thing and checked out the Auto Collection at Imperial Palace. Lots of cool, classic cars; Monica would love it.
Last week I spent catching up between handing our remodeling projects. With the floors being sanded and finished, I had to get the dogs out of the house every day. Our deck contractor also started the tear down of the existing deck. We knew some of the decking was bad, but as he's removed the decking up we can see how badly rotted some of the joists are.
The hardwood floor is basically done. The flooring is all in, sanded and finished. He just needs to reinstall the molding, air registers, and some other things that were removed. He's also going to install the hardwood stairs and then we're done with the inside. Deck project is going to take a while.
Had a great time in Vegas. The weather was hot and sunny and I actually got to enjoy it for at least a few minutes each day. Yes most of my time was spent inside poker rooms -- which is why the weather in Vegas doesn't matter too much -- but I walked outside and spent a few mornings relaxing by the pool. Overall I wound up down a bit for the trip playing poker. I did really well the first week, then the second week I made a few mistakes and got a bit unlucky in a few hands. No doubt playing a lot improved my game. One of my big takeaways is learning to trust my reads -- i.e., whether my opponent has a hand or is bluffing -- which have been dead on. I've been pretty good but lost a few pots where I called and should have raised.
I played at about a dozen different poker rooms and stopped by two or three others just to take a look. Added to my chip collection and upgraded a number of other chips to excellent condition. I guess with all the action the WSOP brings to town a lot of places put new $1 chips in play. Speaking of which, one of the really cool things I did was to check out the WSOP action. Meier and I watched the $50,000 Players Championship where we could see 100 of the best -- or at least 100 of the wealthiest poker players -- up close. Basically every big name player was there, like an all-star game or sorts. I'd say 1/3 of the field was big name players anyone who follows the sport would recognize (Doyle Brunson, Mike Matusow, Phil Hellmuth, etc.), 1/3 were guys some people would recognize or some knew that they won this or that tournament, and the rest appeared to be internet wonder kids. There were a bunch of young guys that didn't look at all familiar. In addition to watching the start, I came back three days later to sit in the studio and watch the final three battle it out. It's just what you see on TV. In fact if you watch on ESPN July 27th, you should be able to see me on TV.
Also met up with my cousins Roz and Irv while there and got to catch up. And I did a touristy thing and checked out the Auto Collection at Imperial Palace. Lots of cool, classic cars; Monica would love it.
Last week I spent catching up between handing our remodeling projects. With the floors being sanded and finished, I had to get the dogs out of the house every day. Our deck contractor also started the tear down of the existing deck. We knew some of the decking was bad, but as he's removed the decking up we can see how badly rotted some of the joists are.
The hardwood floor is basically done. The flooring is all in, sanded and finished. He just needs to reinstall the molding, air registers, and some other things that were removed. He's also going to install the hardwood stairs and then we're done with the inside. Deck project is going to take a while.
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