NFL Update

After 10+ weeks, the NFL looks exactly like I called it after 3 weeks.  While it's nice to be right, it's also disappointing the the league is so predictable.  The eight teams I called out as terrible are a combined 18-64 (22%) but 10 of those wins are against each other.  Against the "non-terrible" teams they're 8-54 (13%), which means it's almost a guaranteed win if you play one of them.  The Lions have two wins not because they're improved but because other teams have fallen to their level.  As noted, 2-2 was a schedule fluke for the Redskins whose 3-7 is a better representation of the team's skill level.  The Panthers, who were the top of the terrible group, appear to have upgraded to "bad".

The top is a bit trickier.  I gave the Ravens too much credit for wins against bad teams and they're 2-5 since.  That said all five loses are to division leaders and they were close in every game. The schedule looks more favorable the rest of the way.

The Titans shaped up from their start and people are actually talking playoffs.  I think they have too many teams to catch, but 8-8 would be a great accomplishment after starting 0-6.  Sadly it might help Jeff Fisher keep his job.

Beyond the Colts, I still think there's a lot of smoke and mirrors with the top teams.  The Saints and Vikings have played the two easiest schedules in the league this year.  (Followed by the Packers and Redskins, see I told you Washington was awful.)  But no one in the NFC looks that good, so I'd expect the Vikings and Saints to win in the playoffs, but bet against them and take the points.