Why College Basketball is Close

Anyone who's watched college basketball over the past few years has noticed that games are generally close.  There are lots of upset every year, even with top 5 teams against unranked opponents.  Cornell, an Ivy league school, played then #1 Kansas close and lost by only five points.

Vanderbilt just beat South Carolina by 10 points on the road.  Any road win in the SEC is an accomplishment, and a double digit road win is doubly impressive.  However I wondered whether South Carolina was just really bad, Vanderbilt was good, or Vanderbilt just played well.  And this is interesting.

I checked the "Vegas lines" and Vanderbilt was a 1 point favorite, so winning easily is a great.  Then I checked Sagrain ratings to get a computerized view of what they've done so far.  Vanderbilt is #21 and South Carolina is #73 so at first  it looks like Vanderbilt should win easily and the line is "off".  However a close look shows Vanderbilt's rating is only 4.5 point more than South Carolina's.  Give South Carolina 4 points for being home, and the "Sagarin line" is Vanderbilt by 1/2 point!  That's right a top 25 team plays a team not in the top 70 -- a team hoping for a NIT berth -- and the game is a toss up.

There are some good teams at the top, but the difference between #10 and #100 is just 12 points.  The difference between #10, what some might call an elite team and #50, a team on the NCAA tournament bubble is 6 points.  And if the #50 team is at home, the difference is 2 points, essentially a toss up.

In the ACC, the difference between the second best team and the worst (12th) team is 8 points.  2nd to 7th are separated by 3 points.  That's going to be a wild conference and a wilder tournament.  In the Big East, the top 12 teams are separated by 10 points.  It's not quite a crapshoot, but most conference games are 60-40 propositions even if there's a big spread in rankings.

It's a good year to bet on middle seeds making a run in the NCAA tournament.